My Senior Thesis - NEED YOUR HAND HISTORIES (long, x-post)

[JrJordan]

Cliffnotes:
I’m writing my senior thesis on wealth management for the professional poker player and need hand histories from pros. In return I will give you a customized optimal allocation of your money.

Howdy High Stakers.
I come to you asking for your help. I am currently a senior at Princeton, and like all the alums before me, get to experience the joy that is the senior thesis. I have decided to write my thesis on the long term wealth management of the professional poker player. This is a good fit for my background as an Operations Research and Financial Engineering major and I have a lot of great tools at my disposal for some nifty math calculations. In particular, I will be aiming to solve three specific problems.


My Senior Thesis:
1.) Use empirical data to create a long run profit/loss distribution for various styles of poker playing.

People across these boards use the Gaussian distribution with a given mean and variance on a daily basis. It allows them to model for future returns, as well as maintain bankroll standards to reduce the risk of ruin. I would like to test using empirical data whether this Gaussian assumption is indeed true. In particular, I will be testing to see if I can get a better fit in the tails using a General Pareto Distribution, which tends to have heavier tails than the Gaussian and thus have major implications on the bankroll size necessary to handle severe downswings.

2.) Determine from the previous distributions if online professional poker is sustainable as a sole source of income, and if so, what levels?

This is a given on these boards and will act more as an introduction to the third part of my thesis proposal listed below.

3.) Create an optimal wealth management strategy that focuses on a balance of three separate requirements: a growing bankroll, monthly capital needed to live a comfortable lifestyle, and a passive investment portfolio.

The concept I’m trying to answer is the following. As a professional continues to play, he will become a better player, and therefore can play in higher games for an overall higher return. In order to do so though, he must allocate more money into his bankroll. However, the player incurs an opportunity cost by keeping money in the bankroll when he could otherwise invest it at some expected positive return. Lastly, the player must ensure he has enough funds at all times to ensure he can continue to live comfortably on a monthly basis.

I will be using dynamic programming to create a mathematical model of this problem, and then using Monte Carlo simulation and empirical data to find a numerical solution.



Where You Come In
You may have noticed I used the phrase “empirical data” a few times during the description. This is where you come in. In order for this to be successful, I need the poker hand histories of professional poker players. In particular, players who have worked their way up the ranks from lower stakes and have collected data along the road. The more hands the better so I can have some robust data. I will keep all of your names, data, and notes strictly confidential and will only be using the monetary results in order to determine the profit distribution.

What Do You Get In Return?
This can benefit you as well. I mentioned earlier the attempt to find a mathematical model and a numerical solution to this problem. If I use your data, I will create a customized numerical solution that suggests what your optimal allocation should be between bankroll, daily expenses, and investment portfolio. It’s the least I can do for your help.

2+2 has given me so much in terms of poker guidance and support. Everyone always says in the “should I quit college to play poker” threads that you should stay in school and graduate to keep options open. Well, I would be extremely grateful if you could help me graduate as well. Feel free to PM me if you’re willing to help, or just respond in the thread. Any comments about how awesome/sucky my thesis topic is, as well as any advice from people who have done similar independent work, will also be welcome.

[wfo]

NL Texas Hold'em 11 Buy-in Trny:29038924 Level:3 Blinds(50/100) - Thursday, September 21, 19:58:35 ET 2006
Table Table 112203 (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: emmyiscute ( 6151 )
Seat 3: roemsler ( 1410 )
Seat 6: freecoins ( 3166 )
Seat 5: Crowfla2 ( 1273 )
Trny:29038924 Level:3
Blinds(50/100)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to freecoins [ 2h Ac ]
Crowfla2 folds.
freecoins raises [350].
emmyiscute calls [300].
roemsler folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ Kd, Ad, Jd ]
emmyiscute checks.
freecoins checks.
** Dealing Turn ** [ Ah ]
emmyiscute checks.
freecoins checks.
** Dealing River ** [ Th ]
emmyiscute bets [125].
freecoins calls [125].
emmyiscute shows [ Td, Qd ] Royal Flush.
freecoins shows [ 2h, Ac ] three of a kind, aces.
emmyiscute wins 1050 chips from the main pot with Royal Flush.

[Dan BRIGHT]

[ QUOTE ]
NL Texas Hold'em 11 Buy-in Trny:29038924 Level:3 Blinds(50/100) - Thursday, September 21, 19:58:35 ET 2006
Table Table 112203 (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: emmyiscute ( 6151 )
Seat 3: roemsler ( 1410 )
Seat 6: freecoins ( 3166 )
Seat 5: Crowfla2 ( 1273 )
Trny:29038924 Level:3
Blinds(50/100)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to freecoins [ 2h Ac ]
Crowfla2 folds.
freecoins raises [350].
emmyiscute calls [300].
roemsler folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ Kd, Ad, Jd ]
emmyiscute checks.
freecoins checks.
** Dealing Turn ** [ Ah ]
emmyiscute checks.
freecoins checks.
** Dealing River ** [ Th ]
emmyiscute bets [125].
freecoins calls [125].
emmyiscute shows [ Td, Qd ] Royal Flush.
freecoins shows [ 2h, Ac ] three of a kind, aces.
emmyiscute wins 1050 chips from the main pot with Royal Flush.

[/ QUOTE ]


rofl klassik

[mudbuddha]

im interested in reading ur paper

lag > tag

[cocarondelle]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">Hero (t1980)</font>
CO (t2400)
Button (t4350)
SB (t2165)
BB (t1630)
UTG (t745)
<font color="#C00000">UTG+1 (t2520)</font>
MP1 (t1280)
MP2 (t2930)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises to t250</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls t250, CO calls t250, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>.

Flop: (t900) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets t695</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t1390</font>, CO folds, UTG+1 calls t695.

Turn: (t3680) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

River: (t3680) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Final Pot: t3680

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
UTG+1 has 6s 6c (straight flush, ten high).
Hero has Tc Th (full house, tens full of sevens).
Outcome: UTG+1 wins t3680. </font>

hehe [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[HP]

It sounds like an interesting thesis, but are you aware how big an ask it is for hand histories of high stakes players?

I think you would have better luck with the medium stakes players, 400NL and below

[captZEEbo]

why would you need the hands and not the pokertracker session results or bbv screenshots or something? We all know you just way a complete free database of some high stakes pros, so you can shortcut your way to victory by emulating their strategy.

[wfo]

[ QUOTE ]
why would you need the hands and not the pokertracker session results or bbv screenshots or something? We all know you just way a complete free database of some high stakes pros, so you can shortcut your way to victory by emulating their strategy.

[/ QUOTE ]

BUSTED MOTHER [censored]!!!!!!!

[TheWorstPlayer]

a) you will never get this data. you will do better just assuming the distribution and discussing the impact of the assumed distributions against each other. i.e. if the kurtosis is 4 of the GPD then it implies X for allocation, if it is 6, it implies Y.

b)who is your advisor? if it's RVDB or Powell, send him my regards (I'm Dov).