2/4 AK faces turn raise on AKQ flop from UTG PFRer

[Babar71]

Hi all,

Newbie to poker, first post, so sorry if this is standard, and thx to all posters, been reading the forum for a year now, what I learned here is invaluable.

Party 2/4, full ring
No read on villain (first orbit)

Hero is dealt AK in Button (suits unimportant)

UTG raises, folded to Hero who 3bets, UTG caps.

Flop comes A K Q rainbow.
UTG bets, Hero raises, UTG calls.

Turn = blank
UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG raises, Hero ????

I figured AA and KK were highly unlikely here, what about QQ? Call down from here, 3bet, put every possible bet in?
Thanks for your thoughts on turn and on a plan for river.

Also, do your actions change if villain is a known TAG?

[TripleH68]

Villain has played the hand like a monster. Capping preflop oop, leading the flop and c-r on the turn.

If you think villain holds AA-QQ,AKs,AKo...you only have 26% equity(and 22% is for a split pot) once the turn brick falls.
Getting over 9:1 on the turn call I would call and root for a bullet.

[Compit]

Not many 2/4ers cap AQ, which is the only hand in his range you are beating. There are more ways for him to have QQ but AA and KK are not what I would call "highly unlikely" given the action. Not many 2/4ers cap QQ preflop either. He can also have AKs.

I think you're behind and you have 0-4 outs for the win. You're getting 9:1 to call which is not good. Nevertheless I find it hard to fold this much hand HU in a 2/4 game. It's still possible he is trying to run you over with JJ-TT. The turn c/r is a bit suspicious. It doesn't gain all that much but does put you to a decision.

Without reads I think I would calldown for reference.

[Nick Royale]

Putting villain on the reasonable range of AK/AA-JJ when he caps preflop seems ok since he raised from UTG. You're ahead of 6 of them and behind of 5, so I really don't mind just calling down from the flop bet. It keeps you away from these akward situations and since you are in postion you don't have to fear giving JJ a freecard.

Given the line you took you are ahead of 4 AK hands and behind of 5 AA-QQ hands so I think you need to call down hoping for a split. You get 8:2 o call down on a 5:2 chance of being ahead. Even though AK should be discounted some since he will have to fear a set I think calling down is fine. I think we should add a little chance of him holding AQ and you being ahead too. Also, add the fact that when he holds QQ you almost got the odds to draw and it's a must calldown.

[jmc999]

Grunch:

If an A or a K comes, you probably have the nuts. I don't see the villian as having flopped a straight. The best case scenario is a slowplayed AK/AQ/KQ.

My guess is that without some sort of read, the safest thing to do is to call the turn raise and call the river when he bets. Course, if an A or K slides off, you can raise it [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
(right?)

What does a TAG cap with? I'd guess:
AA/KK/QQ/AK
Maybe JJ/TT
Against a TAG you're probably looking at a set.

[TripleH68]

[ QUOTE ]
AA and KK are not what I would call "highly unlikely" given the action.

[/ QUOTE ]

AA and KK are unlikely not based on the action, rather because hero holds AK and AK came down on the flop.
This means the other two aces or kings would be in villain's hand. Statistically unlikely.

[Compit]

I understand.

But given villain's range here it is statistically unlikely that he holds any of his most likely holdings, and yet he does.

[TripleH68]

[ QUOTE ]
I understand.

But given villain's range here it is statistically unlikely that he holds any of his most likely holdings, and yet he does.

[/ QUOTE ]

I couldn't have said it better myself. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[jmc999]

Well, let's revisit from an odds perspective:
AA - 1
KK - 1
QQ - 3

KQ - 3
AQ - 3
AK - 1

QQ is probably the most likely holding.
Given the above assumptions, we have the best hand/tie
p=6/12 on the turn, q=5/12 we're losing, tie = 1/12.

If we remove KQ from the equation, we're winning p=3/9, losing q=5/9, tie = 1/9.

Without AQ, we're winning p=0/6, losing 5/6, tie 1/6.

Since we plan on seeing this down to the end, let's just worry about maximizing our return from here on out:

Best case:

case 1 -- call down to the end
p*(1+1) - q*(1+1) = +.1667 BB

case 2 -- raise the turn, get reraised by AA/KK/QQ. Otherwise, opponent calls the turn, check/calls the river.
p*(2+1) - q*(3+1) = -.1667 BB

case 2b -- raise the turn, get reraised by AA/KK/QQ. Otherwise opponent calls the turn, and both of you check the river.
p*(2+0) - q*(3+1) = -.667 BB

case 3 -- raise the turn and only get reraised by AA.
Otherwise, opponent check/calls the river
p*(2+1) - q*.2*(3+1) - q*.8 * (2+1) = +.1667 BB

case 4 -- raise the turn and opponent reraises with AA/KK/QQ/AQ/AK/KQ. He bets and you call the river.
p*(3+1) - q*(3+1) = .333 BB

Someone check my math please [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

If your opponent would reraise with AQ and KQ, then raising the turn is good. However, this would mean your opponent capped the preflop in bad position with AQ or KQ and is crazy enough to reraise after you raise on top of his check-raise.

Calling it down seems best to me -- especially given that we're using p/q from our best case assumption.

[Babar71]

Thanks for your responses.

This hand has nothing special really... but had me confused by the c/r and when villain eventually showed AQ. I was wondering if I had missed any bet.

(For the record I just called it down from the turn raise)

This leads me to a spare more general related question I often asked myself:

Are there specific conditions under which capping would or would almost be a correct move for "deception" even if you don't hold a monster? Or may be never correct OOP but might be correct in position? After all the additional investment is relatively low for a large pot already and with a strong hand anyway.

In other words, is villain's move really bad here when he caps AQ? The fact is, if he hadn't capped, I wouldn't have much hesitated to 3bet the turn here...

Could the answer vary according to stakes? ie. almost never correct at small stakes, common at high stakes??