Olsen Twin thin value bet vs donk

[shpanko]

Villain is 55/7/1 over ~100 hands. I have a LAGGro image of like 24/20/2.5. I wasn't really sure what to put him on. Is the river shove too thin or is it ok? Should I fold the turn ever?

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$1/$2 Blinds
6 Players
LegoPoker HH Converter

SB: $240
BB: $416.30
<font color="black"> Hero (UTG): $199 </font>
MP: $537.80
CO: $184.65
BTN: $204

<font color="black"> Preflop: </font> Hero is dealt 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 Players)
<font color="red"> Hero raises to $7 </font>, 4 folds, BB calls $5

<font color="black"> Flop: </font> ($15) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red"> BB bets $8 </font>, <font color="red"> Hero raises to $24 </font>, BB calls $16

<font color="black"> Turn: </font> ($63) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red"> BB bets $44 </font>, Hero calls $44

<font color="black"> River: </font> ($151) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red"> Hero bets all-in for $124 </font>

[delta k]

I think he has 87 and folds.

[Vegas_VIP]

Nice play pre-flop and flop.

You know what this is a tough situation. I think on some instances I would fold the turn.

[carnivalhobo]

[ QUOTE ]
I think he has 87 and snapcalls with fistpump and doesnt get why the pot goes to Hero.

[/ QUOTE ]

[disciple]

I would of fold turn, but as played I think river shove is good as lots of eights and some sevens will call you. you counterfeited 87. The only hand I'm worried about is TT and JJ but I'm not sure if he leads out with them on the turn.

[mdkrahn]

I'm so confused.

I don't think an 8 calls ever here.
Isn't this a bluff.

[shpanko]

I think a donk calls here with an 8 / 87 a large percentage of the time. I don't really see what I'd be trying to bluff out if this were a bluff. I think he checks a Q on the river here like never.

[mdkrahn]

I agree, he never has a Q here.

I guess he might call here with an 8.
Maybe I underestimate the value of donkness in people, and am leaving value on the table.


As a side question, do you think he ever has 1010, JJ here?

[shpanko]

Why would he decide to lead the Q turn with JJ/TT? Not to say those hands aren't possible that'd just be a really strange way to play those hands

[disciple]

what range did you put him on that made you called the turn?