2-7, Last round math.

[Biggle10]

Triple Draw 2-7 Lowball Limit ($2/$4) (converter)

SB ($70), Seat 2
BB ($40), Seat 3
UTG ($84.50), Seat 4
MP ($76), Seat 5
Hero ($54), Seat 6
Button ($140.50), Seat 1

Button at Seat 1.
SB posts $1. BB posts $2.

Hand: [Qc 7s 2s Jh 4s]

Round 1: (1.50 SB)

<font color="green">UTG calls. </font><font color="#666666">MP folds. </font><font color="red">Hero raises. </font><font color="green">Button calls. </font><font color="#666666">SB folds. </font><font color="green">BB calls. </font><font color="green">UTG calls. </font>
BB takes 2. UTG takes 2. Hero discards Qc Jh. Button takes 2.

Hand: [7s 2s 4s Ad 2d]

Round 2: (8.50 SB)

<font color="green">BB checks. </font><font color="green">UTG checks. </font><font color="green">Hero checks. </font><font color="green">Button checks. </font>
BB takes 2. UTG takes 2. Hero discards Ad 2s. Button takes 2.

Hand: [7s 4s 2d 6s 3c]

Round 3: (4.25 BB)

<font color="green">BB checks. </font><font color="green">UTG checks. </font><font color="red">Hero bets. </font><font color="green">Button calls. </font><font color="#666666">BB folds. </font><font color="green">UTG calls. </font>
UTG takes 1. Hero stands pat. Button takes 1.

Hand: [7s 4s 2d 6s 3c]

Round 4: (7.25 BB)

<font color="green">UTG checks. </font><font color="red">Hero bets. </font><font color="red">Button raises. </font>

OK, this may seem retarded but I'm not sure what to do here. I'm not folding but Button in question NEVER raises anything but sevens.
So..
If villain has #1. I lose 2 more bets by 3-betting and villain capping.
If villain has #2. We break even.
If villain has #3 or #4. I gain one more bet.

So based on combinations, what I do doesn't make a difference in terms of EV, correct?

Based on what I am holding/discards is any hand more likely in villain's hand?

[2461Badugi]

They're really not equal: raising is slightly superior. Even if they were equal, you would be better to raise as calling doesn't give him a chance to make a mistake by capping you with #3 (or timing out or misclicking).

Also, because three deuces are accounted for and there were four players in the hand, threes should be somewhat deader than average, which will skew his hand range slightly to #4.

[InWithTheBest]

how is this close? its a low limit game (much more likely this guy is clueless), you have the 2nd nuts, and youve put in only 2 bets so far which you would of done with much worse holdings (i hope).

As far as im concerned if your losing less than 4 bets when you run #2 into a wheel you aren't playing correctly and are going to lose tons of bets long term when your lucky enough to make #2 against a worse 7. That being said you shouldnt be losing too many more than 4 either, but I consider 4 the minimum if both hands are drawing after the first draw.