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#1
08-27-2007, 10:49 AM
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Flush draws: When to keep going and when to give them up?
I'm now nearly two months into my seemingly never-ending slump. After having a nice four day turnaround last week, my weekend playing in cash games wiped out those gains, despite finishing ITM in a stud tourney and a NLHE tourney. The story was pretty much the same as it has been for the last two months...big starter pairs that don't improve, big pairs that improve to two big pairs but get beat by little trips, OESDs that never finish, and lots of live four-flushes on 4th or 5th street that don't fill.
In doing some in-depth hand analysis, I'm finding it is the latter in particular that are costing me a lot of money. (Particularly frustrating is when I start with a four-card flush with none or only one of my suit visible and by 6th street I still haven't hit and no more than one more of my suit has shown up in other hands...and of course the river is a blank.) Over the last two months, my starting four-flushes have only completed 18% of the time...and of those that have completed, 22% have still lost. These numbers seem abnormal to me. Are they? So when do you keep drawing to your flush and when do you fold? I realize that there is no "one-size-fits-all" answer to this question, but I'd like to hear some general "rules of thumb" from the forum beyond the basic guideline of "don't play your starting flush draw if cards of your suit are door-cards in three opponents' hands." P.S. I'm not looking for a math probabilities-type answer. I'm familiar with 7-Card Stud Flush Completion. I'm more interested in tactical advice on playing flush draws on 4th street and beyond. 
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#3
08-27-2007, 11:18 AM
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Re: Flush draws: When to keep going and when to give them up?
Uhhhhh, thanks, but that's not working and is only costing me more money. I am either betting out or raising with a majority of my starting four-flushes, as long as I have face-card outs in them, and am continuing to bet on 5th street even when I get a brick. How much more aggressive am I supposed to be than that?
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#6
08-27-2007, 03:39 PM
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Re: Flush draws: When to keep going and when to give them up?
[ QUOTE ]
What limits do u play and which sites are u at. 1-5 stud is your main "live" game right? [/ QUOTE ] Are you asking me or chucky? (The Re: says it is to chucky, but I suspect you hit the Quick Reply and may have meant it for me.) If the questions are meant for me, you already pretty much know the answers, inasmuch as we have played against each other on-line numerous times. However, for the edification of others, I generally play 1/2, 2/4, 3/6 and 5/10 stud, mostly at FTP and occasionally at PS. Prior to my slump and during the first few weeks of it, I was playing mostly 3/6. As my slump progressed (regressed?), I began dropping down in limits to the point where now I play almost exclusively at 1/2 and in the last two weeks have even been playing some $.50/1. As you can see in this thread, my bankroll at FTP has taken quite a hit since the first of July. Since I posted this, my balance at FTP is about the same, but that is somewhat misleading inasmuch as I have earned $100 in bonus money since then and won about $60 in the aforementioned two tournies this past weekend. Although I also spent about $75 in tourney fees these last two weeks, I've lost yet another $80-90 in cash games playing either 1/2 stud, $.50/1 stud or 1/2 LHE. My "live" stud experience has been limited to 1-5 and 2-10 and a couple stud tournaments. I'm not sure what any of this has to do with the questions I posed about playing flush draws, but I'm sure you're gonna 'splain it to me, Lucy.
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#8
08-27-2007, 11:23 AM
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Re: Flush draws: When to keep going and when to give them up?
[ QUOTE ]
Over the last two months, my starting four-flushes have only completed 18% of the time...and of those that have completed, 22% have still lost. These numbers seem abnormal to me. Are they? P.S. I'm not looking for a math probabilities-type answer. I'm familiar with 7-Card Stud Flush Completion. I'm more interested in tactical advice on playing flush draws on 4th street and beyond. [/ QUOTE ] Obv you're familiar with the math in these spots, and obv 18% is way out on the tails of the probability curve for completing a 4 flush (even if you count those hands where you pick up the draw on 5th st). This kind of huge mathematical slump can make even great players question their game and play with a defeatist attitude. But, on the upside, if your statistics are accurate then I think you have already found the root of your EV slump... you're running cold! This is way better than finding that you've been playing poorly since cards will always eventually even out, just don't alter your game too dramatically so that when they do you can maximize your profit from them.
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#9
08-27-2007, 11:25 AM
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Re: Flush draws: When to keep going and when to give them up?
Maybe try raising the 3 flushes more so you are playing against 2-4 players instead of 4-7 if you want them to stand up more. If you are doing this presumably with high overcards, you will often get to see 4th free so you have a couple shots to pair up or get out for only the price of your completion.
When you hit your 4-flush make sure to pump them up so when you hit them you win big....its the old adage that you want to win more money, not more pots. Given that you play solid, I am guessing its a bit of a drought. Happens to everyone. I am in a bit of a nasty one the last week.
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#10
08-27-2007, 11:44 AM
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Re: Flush draws: When to keep going and when to give them up?
Are you taking into consideration the times in which your aggressiveness has given the table an excuse to fold early? Maybe you should factor into your slump, this positive part of playing flush draws is sometimes overlooked.
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