Overpair against passive fishy 50nl

[derosnec]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($13.90)
UTG ($76.90)
MP ($56)
CO ($60.75)
Button ($51.80)
Hero ($72.55)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.50, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $6</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls $5.50, MP folds.

Flop: ($14.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $11.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $28</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero

[Supwithbates]

reraises more preflop and then 3betshoves flop

[Lego05]

How passive? Got the stats?


Anyway without any more information then IMO he's got either 77,88,AK like 90%+ of the time. Usually when a poor player cold calls 2 raises like that it's a pocket pair or AK in my experience. So I guess the question really is how passive is he on the flop.




Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

11,880 games 0.032 secs 371,250 games/sec

Board: 7s Kh 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.227% 50.23% 00.00% 5967 0.00 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 49.773% 49.77% 00.00% 5913 0.00 { 8d8h, 8d8s, 8h8s, 7c7d, 7c7h, 7d7h, AdKd, AdKc, AdKs, AhKc, AhKd, AhKs }

[Lego05]

Oh yea...definitely raise more pre. I usually make it 7....maybe occasionally $7.25 with the limper in before the raiser.

[billip62]

I like a raise to $7 pre and definately getting it all in on that flop. Lego's pokerstove is proof positive that even with ultra tight ranges you still ahead.

[corsakh]

Fist pump?

[derosnec]

i dunno. when he limped i thought his range was weighted toward 77/88. i got all in and he had 77. no biggie about results, just doing a sanity check by posting the hand.

[Chomp]

We have 40% equity against a range of {77, 88, KK, AK}, so I think the dead money means we have to get it in, investing ~$34 to win ~$59 (I think).

I suppose we need to weight the 77/88 bigger here given preflop, but considering villain's range will sometimes include bluffs/random crap/SC's, I think getting it in must be ok.

I've been trying to formulate a theorem about this spot for a while. Can't quite get it right, but it's something like "In a 3b pot facing heat on a somewhat drawy or somewhat setty flop, our overpair almost always has the equity to get it in".

The slightly odd preflop in this hand means the theorem doesn't quite apply here, but the general concept is the same: our overpair repeatedly has ~40% equity in these spots and the pot is inevitably offering us about that price to get it in.

[toddxlogan]

Lol @ your location, Derosnec.

(But wait, no, seriously, that isn't you....right?)