too big to back out?

[Goodnews]

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IMiller said in SSHE pgs 149-150 in the section "Continuing When You Might Be Drawing Dead"
"In large pots you should often continue even when your winning chances appear grim...Consequently, if the pot is big, you should be relatively certain that you are drawing dead before you fold."

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I hope you turned the page and read the rest of the section. It talks about making a call on the turn in a huge pot (15 BB) getting a good price to draw to a strong hand (flush draw/straight draw). He's not talking about weak hands with no redraws calling two cold on the flop on a pot that is only "starting to get big" (7 BB).

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OP, Aaron is right. You are not getting sufficient odds to draw to a weak two pair and a bdfd. 7 to 1 basically requires you to have 12.5% chance (which translates to roughly 3 outs). For the bdfd I give you 1.5 outs, half an out for two pair and another half out for trips. 2.5 outs makes it very close, but considering the reverse implied odds (the betting on the turn) makes this a fold.

If the turn did not bring a spade, then I assume you are folding?

[calidris]

And since it hasn't been mentioned. Q2s PF, even "in position", is pretty darn pointless.

[marchron]

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You are not getting sufficient odds to draw to a weak two pair and a bdfd. 7 to 1 basically requires you to have 12.5% chance (which translates to roughly 3 outs). For the bdfd I give you 1.5 outs, half an out for two pair and another half out for trips. 2.5 outs makes it very close, but considering the reverse implied odds (the betting on the turn) makes this a fold.

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Something does not smell right with this. 7-1 odds usually dictate 6-ish outs to call.

Oh, you're going flop-to-river by the Rule Of Four (12.5% winning chances = ~3 outs). That's wrong because Hero's not all-in and will certainly face more bets.

In fact, that's the reason why Hero should fold the flop here: he's not closing the action. Having action behind you is an odds reducer because you have no idea whether the initial flop bettor will three-bet it. And if the raiser caps, you're in a world of [censored].

[BadBigBabar]

yea good call calidris, fold this pf pls

[Gary Frates]

In SSHE on pg.102 it says: "You are over a 23-to-1 dog to make your backdoor (flush) draw. If it is your only winning chance, the pot must be enormous for you to consider calling a flop bet. (Even 23-to-1 isn't usually enough unless you are all-in because you sometimes have to call a bet on the turn.)"
" A reasonable estimate for the value a backdoor flush draw adds is 1.5 outs."

Since with this hand, I considered the backdoor flush draw as my only winning chance, I definitely wasn't being laid odds to call a flop bet.

[maverickai]

same here. I would have folded flop. You are likely to be outkicked, you have very little outs. Your back door flush draw might not be a winning hand... I think this is where reverse implied odds is working. You might be slightly ahead on the flop, but losing big time on the big streets.

[Sushiglutton]

Pf is close. Flop is not close, just drop it. Rest is ok, but I 3-bet the river.

[calidris]

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Pf is close

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Pooh-Bah or not, I'd like to see some motivation (mathwise or not) for that [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[36CampusAve]

:grunch:

Preflop - fold, only 3 ppl in pot Q2 suited can't be +EV
Flop - fold, my guess is that you are up against a str8 draw and Q better kicker
Turn - I call both, but not sure you have the odds since you are not last to act
River - 3-bet

[Mitke]

It can't be too clear cut with four limpers and a good chance of getting both blinds in and Hero on the Button with position for the rest of the hand with a suited hand.

Flopping a flush 0.84% or ~118:1
- " - a FD 10.9% or 8.1:1
- " - two pair using both your cards 2% or 48:1
- " - trips using either hole card 1.35% or 73:1
- " - full house 0.09% or 1087:1
- " - quads 0.01% or 9799:1

(Odds from here.)

So you flop a FD, or two pair or better ~15,2% of the time. If we assume both blinds are coming in, which is likely, Hero is getting 6:1 on his preflop call. 1/6 ~= 16.7%. 1/7 ~= 14.3%.

Of course, very few of the draws or hands Hero can make are to the nuts and the blinds can raise so we probably would like to have a bit of cushion here.

Anyways, I don't think the preflop call on the BTN is by any means terrible. The hand just needs to go in the muck unless flopping a twopair or FD and needs to be folded on the flop in this particular spot.