Heads Up Matches

[RustyBrooks]

[ QUOTE ]
Thats not my point....my point is "In your opinion is it better to risk that same amount of money playing 5 $20 games or 1 $100 game" ??

[/ QUOTE ]

So I take it hourly rate doesn't matter to you at all?

[JABoyd]

You aren't understading it...time for you to move on...thanks for trying to help.

[RustyBrooks]

Bwaahahaha. OK then.

[ QUOTE ]

My math was WAY off...I'm an idiot...


[/ QUOTE ]

QFT

[JABoyd]

Sorry Mrs. Perfect...I forgot you've NEVER made an error...when does your book come out? I'll be sure to purchse a few copies!

[RustyBrooks]

My book, "The Romance of Concrete", is well out of print. You can probably track it down though.

[JABoyd]

[ QUOTE ]
I play $20 heads up matches online. Something I encounter a lot are people running their mouths and eventually saying 'If you're so good why are you at the $20 tables and not the $100 tables?' I think of it as minimizing variance. I feel the skill level is horrible in the $5s and $10s, weak in the $20s, and it increases in the $30s, $50s, and $100s. Therefore I play 3 $20 matches at a time (with a winning percentage of over 65%) instead of 1 or 2 $100 matches at a time. Am I right in this theory??

[/ QUOTE ]

Any other thoughts about the original posting?

[BenG2813]

who gives a [censored] what these guys are saying. sounds like a good theory to me. id say play a little higher. still idiots at these levels and sometimes its easier to play a decent player hu then a crazy idiot. and better fo ryour game

[Yepitis]

Lets say he has $105 and he needs a new lung, which he can get from China for $200.00. Should he play 5 $20's or 1 $100.

Unless you are pressed for time I say play the $20 games cause your win rate is likely to go down as you move up. That's the only real point here that I can see.

Or, you could try it and see how you do.

[RustyBrooks]

Yepitis: you're confusing short term variance with long term variance. There's a huge difference between playing 5 $20s/1 $100 and playing 5000 $20s / 1000 $100s.

Further, it makes far more sense in your situation to play the $100. Let's assume for the moment that he has a 65% chance of winning either.

65% of the time, he will win the $100 and profit $95
His range of possible outcomes is -$105 and +$95

For each match at $25 he has a 65% chance. To win all of them is .65^5 = 11.6%
His range of outcomes is between -105 and +$95 but includes a number of outcomes that are clustered closer to 0.

It's less likely that he'll lose $105 when doing 5 $20 (only about 2% of the time) matches, but it's also less likely that he'll win $95.

[tmcdmck]

haha owned yepitis. rusty is speaking so much sense, but everyone seems blind to it.

hint: there is a reason genius plays the $5000s, and its not because they are super high variance.