Cinci Prop

[arardor]

Rudi Johnson over 23 1/2 carries.

I don't think Rudi is the same type of back that Jones-Drew is so the long runs simply won't be there. Cinci however would love to control the clock and keep Peyton off the field. With Perry out Rudi has shouldered the load. 30 carries last week.

Thoughts?

[Jordan]

it appears like a great bet. thanks for pointing it out. the points you make plus the fact that indy is horrible at stopping the run make it seem like a great play.

disclaimer: what i say may be square gibberish and if the prop were at any other book (than bodog) i'd be a lot less comfortable with it. but bodog puts up ridiculously soft lines all the time, and this probably is one.

[silentbob]

I disagree. Little value in this bet IMO. The Colts defense is horrible, but the Bengals aren't significantly better. They will have trouble stopping Peyton and Addai, and the Colts are just as likely to succeed at their own clock-killing drives to keep the Carson Palmer and Ocho Cinco off the field.

And if the Colts jump out to a big lead, which is certainly possible, Rudi becomes a non-factor.

I'm staying away from this game props-wise, but admittedly this weekend didn't go so well for me in that regard.

[vexel77]

Yeah the colts scoring a couple early is my big worry for this bet, otherwise i think theyll pound rudi all night long.

[arardor]

It is a copy cat league. If you show a weakness the rest of the league will follow. 10-0 or even 14-0 I wouldn't abandon the run against the Colts. If you can gash them for 10 and 15 yards at a time it is just as good as a pass.

Bottom line for me is that I like Cinci in this game. They are red hot and have actually played some D the last few weeks. They are weak against the pass which is right up Peyton's alley but long clock killing drives are not happening for the Colts. If they are going to score they will score quickly. I am just hoping that Cinci will run so many plays tonight that Rudi can't help but get the ball.

Good thought on them jumping out to a lead. Definately possible but don't be all that surprised if a red hot Bengal team gets a lead and takes the air out of the ball with one person to do it with. Another note. Rudi has around 276 carries. Palmer is next with 21.

[youtalkfunny]

I've also got a prop on tonight's game. Call it my "Prop of the Year". You'd think I'd know better, but I'm still going to load up on this one:

Will either team score in the last 2 minutes of the first half?
Yes -250

It's probably cheaper if you're anywhere but BoDog, but I only have money at WSEX and BoDog, and WSEX doesn't have this prop.

-250 is the highest price I've ever seen on this prop--and it's still not high enough. I think I'd lay -500 in this particular matchup.

I've mentioned in prior weeks that Peyton Manning owns this prop, and has owned it for years. He gets the 32nd-ranked pass defense to help him along tonight. Add to that: The Bengals' O also gets a crack at the Colts' terrible D.

All we need is a FG.

I'll be shocked if BOTH teams don't score. We don't need both, we only need one. But think both have a shot.

[youtalkfunny]

[ QUOTE ]
Will either team score in the last 2 minutes of the first half?
Yes -250

[/ QUOTE ]

Heh, they're up to -280 now.

"First score will a TD" is up -220, also the highest I've ever seen that prop. It opened at -200 (another record), and that was too high for me.

I've done very well with these two props for over ten years, because the public has always been suckered into thinking the other side had value. Looks like they may have smartened up, and my gravy train ride is over.