Fold Equity

[afadeyi]

Can someone tell me how to do a quick fold equity calculation when playing live.

Thanks,

[DWarrior]

assume it's 0.

[T50_Omaha8]

[ QUOTE ]
Can someone tell me how to do a quick fold equity calculation when playing live.

Thanks,

[/ QUOTE ]If the amount in the pot is P and your bet is B and the probability the other guy folds to your bet is f, then your EV is

P*f+(Pot Equity)*(P+2B)

Say you have a flush draw, 33% to hit, and your opponent checks to you (assume you have 2s3s or something...no chance to win besides the flush if opponent calls). You expect if you bet half the pot you'll take it down 50% of the time. (Note this is a simplified model.)

Then your ev for betting half the pot is
.5*P+.33*(P+2*(P/2))= 7P/6, and since the bet costs P/2 to make, your expected profit is 7P/6 - 3P/6 = 4P/6.

One thing to note is that if you think your opponent will fold to a PSB more than 50% of the time, then the bet is profitable on fold equity alone. Generally, if you think your opponent will fold to a bet sized x (x expressed as a fraction of the pot) at least (x/(1+x))% of the time, the bet is profitable.

You can memorize the following or just find the pattern:
2*PSB --> He needs to fold 66% (2/3) of the time
1.5*PSB --> He needs to fold 60% (3/5) of the time
PSB --> He needs to fold 50% (1/2) of the time
3/4*PSB --> He needs to fold 43% (3/7) of the time
2/3*PSB --> He needs to fold 40% (2/5) of the time
1/2*PSB --> He needs to fold 33% (1/3) of the time

As you can see, if you are betting the fraction a/b of the pot (ie a=1, b=2 is 1/2), you need to have him fold a/(a+b) to be +EV (ie for 1/2 you need him to fold 1/(1+2)=33% of the time).

Make sense?

[afadeyi]

thanks, yeah i just have to look at it a little.