AQo flops nut flush draw...

Jay_Whufc · #1 11-06-2007, 04:14 PM

BB leading 25/15/2.5 over 90 hands, seems ok
UTG is 37/15/1.2, not too concerned about his call, very much a station who had been running hot
Were obv at least calling, but what are the merits of raising here?

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

CO: $55.85
BTN: $48.75
SB: $51.55
BB: $70
UTG: $121
Hero (MP): $55.10

Pre-Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.50, 3 folds, BB calls $2, UTG calls $2

Flop: ($7.75) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
BB bets $2.50, UTG calls $2.50, Hero ?

Unknown Soldier · #2 11-06-2007, 04:18 PM

you have bad implied odds and good equity. raisy daisy

kurto · #3 11-06-2007, 04:21 PM

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you have bad implied odds and good equity. raisy daisy

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? We have anywhere from 5-15 outs (we don't really know how many) We're getting really good pot odds. Why raise and give someone a chance to reopen the betting? We have position and a cheap price, it seems more prudent to call?

Jay_Whufc · #4 11-06-2007, 04:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you have bad implied odds and good equity. raisy daisy

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? We have anywhere from 5-15 outs (we don't really know how many) We're getting really good pot odds. Why raise and give someone a chance to reopen the betting? We have position and a cheap price, it seems more prudent to call?

[/ QUOTE ]

We have at least 9 outs??

Unknown Soldier · #5 11-06-2007, 04:23 PM

bad IMPLIED odds. i.e. we ain't getting paid often when we hit unless he has a heart

Unknown Soldier · #6 11-06-2007, 04:24 PM

granted we have direct odds to call this, but i prefer raising now

kurto · #7 11-06-2007, 04:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you have bad implied odds and good equity. raisy daisy

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? We have anywhere from 5-15 outs (we don't really know how many) We're getting really good pot odds. Why raise and give someone a chance to reopen the betting? We have position and a cheap price, it seems more prudent to call?

[/ QUOTE ]

We have at least 9 outs??

[/ QUOTE ]

The worst case scenario (though unlikely) is two people have crappy flushes already... in which case you only have 5 outs.

Best case scenario is they're both on draws or have lowpairs and you have 3 -A, 3 - Q and 9 flush outs.

mystro · #8 11-06-2007, 04:38 PM

I think the best case scenario here is much much much more likel than the worse case scenario... two made flushes are unlikely, and I think even one made crappy flush bets out more here as they are scared of another heart

I think FD/set/overpairs play like this because they are scared and by raising I get more money when I'm ahead against essentially everything that's not a set/flush, and might even get some sets to fold

am I completely off my rocker here?

kurto · #9 11-06-2007, 06:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think the best case scenario here is much much much more likel than the worse case scenario... two made flushes are unlikely, and I think even one made crappy flush bets out more here as they are scared of another heart

I think FD/set/overpairs play like this because they are scared and by raising I get more money when I'm ahead against essentially everything that's not a set/flush, and might even get some sets to fold

am I completely off my rocker here?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think the BEST case scenario (15 outs) is necessarily likely. Someone could have a one pair/ace kicker hand... someone could have a set and they're afraid of the flush...

Even if both people have crappy flush draws... that kills two outs.

It would seem to me that raising is only correct if there's a decent chance that both people fold since, the only hand we can be sure we have the nuts on is a flush... which we only have the proper odds to get it all in if BOTH players get their stacks in.

Logun · #10 11-06-2007, 06:17 PM

I prefer a raise here with the knowledge that I'm going to have to call a shove.

UTG range is pretty wide open given his stats, he could have everything from a made flush to a set here, and depending upon how dumb he is he might even have a hand like 45

BB worries me a bit as they lead very weak here into 2 people. If I raise and get smooth called by both people I think you need to check the turn through UI.