Shoeprint #1: Six Flags (SIX)

[Jimbo]

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Are we talking about making money in the sense that you earn some return >0 or are we talking about making excess returns (and therefore justifying some sort of active management)? If it's the former, then sure I understand, but who cares? If it's the latter, I'm not sure you're right. So I guess no, I don't see why

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I normally take pride in not being easily confused but Sir, in your case I tip my hat to you. I can't quite see any difference as long as one is able to make a profit using the information being discussed.

Jimbo

[The Rain King]

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Are we talking about making money in the sense that you earn some return >0 or are we talking about making excess returns (and therefore justifying some sort of active management)? If it's the former, then sure I understand, but who cares? If it's the latter, I'm not sure you're right. So I guess no, I don't see why

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I normally take pride in not being easily confused but Sir, in your case I tip my hat to you. I can't quite see any difference as long as one is able to make a profit using the information being discussed.

Jimbo

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Excess returns would be those in excess of the market or some other benchmark of your choice.

For example, if I (and everyone else) can know what people will do and make, let's say, 5% return, what's the point? Why would I waste the time and energy, and add risk, to actively manage a portfolio for that kind of return? If I can do it and make 15% return that's a BIG difference. At some point between those two values it makes sense to take more risk and actively manage a portfolio of stocks, as this thread seems to be discussing.

Perhaps "excess return" wasn't proper diction? I thought it was clear, but excuse me if it was not.

[Shoe]

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I am really glad Shoe recommended SIX. I did not buy it, but then it dropped nearly 50% so I picked it up at $3.36 last Thursday and sold it at $4.08 today. Nice little 20% gain for me. But as thankful as I am stock will probably shoot up another 15% tomorrow as it did today and I will be kicking myself.

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Yeah, short-term, variance-driven results mean nothing, but thanks for the tidbit.

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First of all I recommended to buy it "sometime during the week", which the range was anywhere from 3.35 - 3.85 during that week. I believe it was around 3.75 when I made the post. If you bought on my recommendation you would be up money right now. I still expect it to bounce a little higher.

It NEVER went down 50% since I recommended it. If you want to bash feel free to bash away, but don't make up stuff or pull numbers out of thin air when doing so.

Edit: This post was not directed at you prohornblower, but the person who said my picks went down 50%. I don't believe any of my current picks on this board are down at all at the moment.

[Shoe]

Well, it looks like my prediction was pretty much dead on, it went on to bottom out that week and has since bounced back nicely.

At the time of my original post, the price was 3.75. If you bought during that week, you would have gotten in at anywhere from 3.25 - 3.95.

The price has not bounced back to the 4.25 - 4.50 range I was hoping, but due to changing market conditions I do not see it going much higher than the current 4.15 range. I would sell now, and watch for another dip over the coming months that will present another good buying opportunity for this stock.

Depending on when you bought, you would have anywhere from a 5 to 27 percent gain in less than a month, with a 10%+ gain being the most likely (as your timing would have to have been really bad to get in the 3.95 range)! Congratulations to anyone who followed my advice. As for a comparison, the S&P 500 is down a little less than a percent over the same time frame.

In the mean time, I currently like the following stocks: NTDOY, GME, TTWO and VMW. I hope to release Shoeprint #2 in the near future with more direct guidance.

For purposes of this newsletter, I am using the 3.75 price at time of publish for my buy price. Going forward I plan to be more direct with issuing a "buy now" command as opposed to just saying it is going to bottom out over the coming days. Not only will this help track my results more accurately, but will provide you with better buying opportunites as well!

Shoeprint #1: Success!!!

[Jimbo]

GME closed today at a 52 week high of $49.43 per share. How high do we wait before we sell? SIX was endorsed by Joe Theisman this evening on Mad Money and now you tell us to sell it? I am sooooo confused!! Should I believe you or a winning Superbowl quarterback?????

TTWO, I like them as well and picked some up at around $12.75 and sold it all today. Isn't their bread and butter video game realese being delayed till after the XMAS season? Plus they are having some SEC investigation right now (A Wells call two weeks ago). Might it not be better to wait for a slight pullback and then pull the trigger?

Jimbo

[brendanb438]

I don't know what is more amusing. You thinking you have a grasp of the stock market, or the fact that you change your date of birth everyday on 2+2 so you have that birthday cake next to your name. I mean really why would anyone take you seriously if you do this everyday?

[jws43yale]

I find Shoe amusing, but also seriously misguided. His plan to invest in 4-5 stocks and return 20%-40% a year is absolutely nuts. But, I also do think some of his more recent analysis has been decent.

I actually flipped six myself for a nice little profit, but I bought it much lower than what Shoe originally recommended. He did bring the stock to my radar, but I bought b/c of my own analysis. He says in his post that he was going to buy tomorrow which would have been the 31st of July when is closed at $3.81.

I really hope for Jimbos sake that he is not looking at Shoe for serious advice.

Also, never noticed the Birtday thing, but that is ridiculously stupid, what a joke of a person.

I would love to hear a quick bio of Shoe and see a picture to get an idea of what would lead to some of his delusions. I think he is just suffering from the fact that he bought a Wii and went, Nintendo is so sweet so I should buy it and then the stock exploded. My first major stock pick was Apple at $26 since I had owned the 1st generation iPod. But, I didn't delude myself into thinking that I was some investing god because of a lucky pick. I think it is great to get started this way, I know I was totally clueless at first and still am not that advanced of an investor. The problem arises because Shoe convinced himself he could run a mutual fund because of one lucky pick.

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Wait, is Shoe the guy that bought a Wii and loves Nintendo becuase of it? I'm not trying to mean that in an insulting way, I'm just curious.

[Jimbo]

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I really hope for Jimbos sake that he is not looking at Shoe for serious advice.



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Is your sarcasm meter on the fritz?

Jimbo

[emon87]

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Wait, is Shoe the guy that bought a Wii and loves Nintendo becuase of it? I'm not trying to mean that in an insulting way, I'm just curious.

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yes