Changes in play that lead to downswings

[mattgoody]

It seems to me that every time i play poker for a significant amount of time, i always hit a wall, stop winning, and start losing. Right now im playing 25c NL on Full Tilt. I am trying to figure out what im doing differently, but all my major stats (VPIP, Preflop Raise%, and AF) stay pretty much constant. I was wondering if there is anyway to see why im having this downswing. Oh and im using the Poker EV program and i made sure im not losing becuz of a bad run of cards. Im just curious if there are any stats to look at that i might not be finding which could help me plug some leaks.

Thanx,
-Matt

[Sean Fraley]

1) It could just be burnout. Take a night or two off per week and do something else.

2) Look at the hands where you lost or won a big pot and check your play. Did the money get in ahead?

3) Take a random 100 hand sample from the beginning of the stretch where you were winning, and the same from the start of the downswing. Look for differences in the choice of cards you play preflop, where and when you raise, calling requirements, etc. The differences may be subtle and not easily reflected in stats.

4) See if the size of your hand compared to the size of the pot you are playing with it has changed. As a winning streak progresses, do you get into larger pots with hand like TPTK (overconfident), as a losing streak progresses are you failing to build bigger pots with big hands that aren't the nuts like medium flushes, trips with a good kicker, etc (lack of confidence)? Sometimes just a small shift in the getting value/giving value ration can decimate your whole game.

[Triggerle]

Attitude is a huge factor in winning/losing. Naturally, during a downswing you lose confidence and play weaker, which leads to more losses. I agree with Sean that you need to get your mind out of the downswing. Even not playing for a week is often a good idea as you have time to reflect and build your confidence.

[Kasane]

Are you talking about a single session... or over days of time. If you're talking about winning at a certain table against specific opponents, I used to find the same thing when I was poorer and laggier player. What happened was I'd run over a table for a little while, they'd watch .. then they'd start playing back at me. It's actually a combination of a bunch of things, but that's one of the factors...

You might need to "switch gears" from time to time... as the now trite, but still true, saying goes.

[citizenwind]

Table selection. Easiest answer. At these limits, just keep sitting around as many 45/6/.5 players as possible and pound on them.

[mattgoody]

Wow thanks for the responses, it turns out that i have been WAY overplaying TPTK and even TP with a decent kicker. ive been playing the same starting hands pretty much but calling more flop bets with top pair. I lost the same amount of money on one pair hands as shown in poker tracker in my last 8000 hands (downswing) that i had in the previous 20000. It didnt feel like i was doing anything differently. Thanks so much for the advice.

-Matt

[Lego05]

What's the Poker EV program?

[mattgoody]

Phil from the software forum is developing one. its in beta testing atm.

Heres the thread: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...art=17&vc=1