Value in a river donk? 15/30

HOWMANY · #1 10-01-2007, 04:02 PM

Unknown villains.

PokerStars 15/30 Omaha/8 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
4 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, Button calls, SB calls, 1 fold.

Flop: (7 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, Button calls, SB calls.

Turn: (5 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, Button raises, SB calls $4 (All-In), Hero calls.

River: (9.13 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players, 1 all-in)
Hero ?

ThE_rEaL_gUnIt · #2 10-01-2007, 04:15 PM

well button is raising on turn (BB), so call turn and when jack on river this merits a river bet if you are first to act if he raises just call....very unlikely he has a 3 hearts here the way he played it, but probably gonna be either a split or u 3/4 him

Buzz · #3 10-01-2007, 07:30 PM

HowMany - Button could have flopped the flush and be making a delayed raise. Or Button could be re-bluffing, thinking Hero might be bluffing even though counterfeited by the deuce, in an attempt to steal the pot. Or Button could have ace-three-X-Y. There are other possibilities as well.

What to do on the river here seems very read dependent, and since these are unknown villains, that's obviously tough.

But do you bet and then call the possible raise, or merely check/call?

It almost seems a toss-up, except that if you check/call, that may induce Villain to bluff/bet, if his turn raise was a bluff.

Thus I'd check/call here, hoping to induce a bluff, and being a bit wary about facing a heart flush for high. Villain probably will bet the nut low if you check, and you might end up with 3/4 (or it could be 1/2 or 1/4).

Check.

Buzz

ThE_rEaL_gUnIt · #4 10-01-2007, 07:44 PM

CHECK CALL HERE IS A VERY WEAK PLAY....IF YOU ARE A WEAK PLAYER THEN CHECK CALL....YOU ARE GIVING WAY TOO MUCH CREDIT TO PEOPLE NOT FIRING THIS RIVER, I CANT TELL YOU HOW MANY TIMES OPP HAS MUCKED OR FOLDED TO THIS BET EVEN IN LIMIT....I DO HOWEVER AGREE THAT THE CHECK CALL WOULD BE PART OF YOUR ARSENAL HERE IN PL8 TO SHOW THAT YOU AREN'T CRAZY AND THAT YOU HAVE SOME RESPECT FOR THE VILLIAN WHO YOU ARE SHOWING DOWN WITH SAYING HEY I HAVE IT WHEN I BET....SO I AM CHECKING THIS.....BUT IN LIMIT HERE FIRE RIVER ISNT READ DEPENDENT AT ALL WHEN ITS YOU AND VILLIAN IN SHOWDOWN I HAVE SEEN THOUSANDS AND THOUSANDS OF HANDS AND BETTING THIS RIVER AND IF YOU GET RAISED CALL IS DEF +EV

HLS2k6 · #5 10-02-2007, 11:26 AM

[ QUOTE ]
CHECK CALL HERE IS A VERY WEAK PLAY....IF YOU ARE A WEAK PLAYER THEN CHECK CALL....YOU ARE GIVING WAY TOO MUCH CREDIT TO PEOPLE NOT FIRING THIS RIVER, I CANT TELL YOU HOW MANY TIMES OPP HAS MUCKED OR FOLDED TO THIS BET EVEN IN LIMIT....I DO HOWEVER AGREE THAT THE CHECK CALL WOULD BE PART OF YOUR ARSENAL HERE IN PL8 TO SHOW THAT YOU AREN'T CRAZY AND THAT YOU HAVE SOME RESPECT FOR THE VILLIAN WHO YOU ARE SHOWING DOWN WITH SAYING HEY I HAVE IT WHEN I BET....SO I AM CHECKING THIS.....BUT IN LIMIT HERE FIRE RIVER ISNT READ DEPENDENT AT ALL WHEN ITS YOU AND VILLIAN IN SHOWDOWN I HAVE SEEN THOUSANDS AND THOUSANDS OF HANDS AND BETTING THIS RIVER AND IF YOU GET RAISED CALL IS DEF +EV

[/ QUOTE ]

I was going to post a response to the OP, but I'll just write that I think pretty much the exact opposite of what this reply says. I guess I'm not baller enough to understand why inducing a bluff like Buzz suggested is "weak."

After raising that turn the button is folding here basically never, and even if he does it's because you are were scooping the sidepot anyway and you gained nothing by betting. Betting would have to be, like the title implies, for value when you think we have 3/4 of the sidepot.

I agree with Buzz that this is super player dependent, but overally I don't like our hand very much on this board. Is the button likely raising the turn with nothing but a low? Slowplaying a flush? Getting raised on this river would suck so much, but so would checking it through. I think my first instinct is to check hoping to induce a bluff, but I'd be open to reasonable arguments otherwise.

ThE_rEaL_gUnIt · #6 10-02-2007, 12:36 PM

k then lil donk then read what i wrote this time and not just what you wanted to read

Buzz · #7 10-02-2007, 11:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
CHECK CALL HERE IS A VERY WEAK PLAY

[/ QUOTE ]I guess it depends on what you mean by "weak."

After this action and considering Hero's cards, I'd call check-fold a "weak" play.

Hero can either (1) bet or (2) try to trap Button into betting. Neither of these is what I would call a "weak" play.

I think if Hero checks, Button will bet almost regardless of his hand.

I'm not sure what will happen if Hero bets. Button may raise, call, or fold. If Button raises, there's the danger of getting quartered. If Button folds, Hero loses a bet by failing to induce a bluff. If Button calls, it's the same as if Hero check/calls.

This is a limit game, not a pot limit game, and I think the two games play quite differently. There's no reasonable chance a decent limit Omaha-8 player at this $15/$30 limit will raise on the turn and then fold a hand that would win part of this pot to a single bet on the river. That would be bizarre. Villain only folds a hand that can't win anyhow.

[ QUOTE ]
YOU ARE GIVING WAY TOO MUCH CREDIT TO PEOPLE NOT FIRING THIS RIVER,

[/ QUOTE ]I had to think about that for a while. That is an on-going concern of mine in low limit games. Do I give my opponents too much credit? Probably sometimes I do. But I don't think Hero would be giving Villain too much credit here.
[ QUOTE ]
I CANT TELL YOU HOW MANY TIMES OPP HAS MUCKED OR FOLDED TO THIS BET EVEN IN LIMIT

[/ QUOTE ]This is limit.

Button would not be facing a bet after he had previously called on three rounds. If Button had called three rounds, then Button might be expected to finally give up on the river.

But Button called on the first two rounds and then raised on the third betting round. I believe if he folds on the river, it is almost surely because Hero has a better hand.

I simply don't realistically see Button folding any hand that would otherwise take part of the pot. Button only folds here if his raise on the turn was a bluff. In that case, there is a slight benefit to Hero by betting, in that he doesn't have to show down his hand. But to me the benefit of inducing a bluff, and then earning a big bet by picking off the bluff outweighs the benefit of keeping a hand concealed.

And besides, I think Button actually has some sort of decent fit with this board and there is not much of a chance he will fold to a bet. (But by checking, there's just that slight chance Button will try a bluff).

All in all, I think the benefits of checking and then calling outweigh the benefits of betting.

Buzz

ThE_rEaL_gUnIt · #8 10-02-2007, 11:36 PM

doyle brunson def check calls this, so does ivey lol get real!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Buzz · #9 10-03-2007, 12:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]
doyle brunson def check calls this, so does ivey

[/ QUOTE ]So you're saying I'm advocating playing this the same as you think they would?

I don't get it.

What is your point?

Buzz