JJ - Top Set Raised on the River

SixForty · #1 10-16-2006, 04:36 PM

Normally this hand wouldn't even phase me. But this raise, at this time, from this opponent - it just made me stop and think.

Live 10/20, 10-handed - very-loose/moderately passive game, lots of people seeing lots of flops (during my 2.5 hours or so at the table so far, we've had maybe 5 or 6 hands where all 10 players saw the flop), but not too many preflop raises, some bouts of aggression postflop, but only from a couple of players, everyone else is a calling station.

Reads:
SB - unknown, only her second hand at the table
BB - horribly weak loose/passive, will call preflop with any two suited and any two 3-gappers, even if he has to call 3 bets cold to do it, loves to chase
UTG - loose/semi-aggressive, plays any pocket pair very strong (will isolation 3-bet an UTG raiser when he has pocket 22, that sort of thing) and likes to checkraise any pair on the flop
UTG+1 - semi-loose/passive, will bet most made hands on the flop, but goes into check and call mode on the big streets with anything less than the nuts
MP1 - unknown, only been at the table for about 1.5 orbits, nothing of note on him
CO - semi-tight/aggressive, he's a very good player. I play against him on average 2 or 3 times a week. We know each other very well. I'd say that he's tight/aggressive, except for the fact that he properly loosens up his hand range for this type of game. He knows how to play against these types of players, and his aggression is always warranted (strong hands, strong draws, protection in large pots, free cards, or a spot where a bluff has a strong enough chance of working). He rarely gets much out of line. I'd say that he and I know each other's playing style very well. He's definitely a consistent long term winner in this game, and I'd say one of the higher winners.
Button - very-loose/passive, likes to play most hands (over 50%) to at least see the turn with them, even for multiple bets often, and will see the river with probably about 25% of his total hands

I know people are going to laugh and say it's a simple decision, but . . .

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, Hero raises, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (8 players, 16 SB)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls

Turn: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 players, 11 BB)
SB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, CO calls, SB calls, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds

River: 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players, 15 BB)
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, CO raises, SB folds, UTG+1 folds, Hero . . . ?

Should I even hesitate to 3-bet it? I'd love to hear what kind of hand range people would give the CO here.

JJH3984 · #2 10-16-2006, 05:14 PM

89 suited is certainly possible in this spot; however, he didn't raise the flop. It seems like a good player in a game this passive will raise the flop because poeple are calling anyway. Unfortunatly, I also can't even think of another hand he could have in this spot given your discription... pocket 4s with a loose flop peel?

Thinking it over, I don't think you do have a raise here. He will certainly be raising any set or two pair on the flop. At first I thought 3town too, but now I'm thinking just call.

gezuz · #3 10-16-2006, 05:20 PM

3 bet. A lower set is so much more likely than a TAG coldcalling 2 preflop with 89s.

Ricks · #4 10-16-2006, 05:29 PM

The only hand that beats you is 98. If this is what he had, I do not agree with the way he played it. Any A,K,Q,9 or 8 could be disastrous for him.

I do not see why he would not protect his hand on the turn if he had two pairs or a set.

I think that you should always hesitate before 3betting if you do not have the nuts but I wouldn't wait too long in this case.

aes14 · #5 10-16-2006, 05:32 PM

I see 8 players going to the flop at 10/20. Are live games easier than interent games? There is no re-raising just calling...

jedi · #6 10-16-2006, 05:38 PM

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I see 8 players going to the flop at 10/20. Are live games easier than interent games? There is no re-raising just calling...

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Yes live games are easier than internet games at the same stakes and it's not close.

For the hand in question, I'll hesitate a little bit, but then 3-bet anyways. I'll curse when it gets capped and call.

chesspain · #7 10-16-2006, 07:11 PM

Given the description of your opponent I think this is an easy river three-bet and cap call.

somapopper · #8 10-16-2006, 07:23 PM

Haven't read the other responses yet:

Not 3-betting seems ludicrous to me. There is exactly one hand that beats you and since no one has raised you so far, you haven't come close to revealing the strength of your hand yet.

If CO does have 89, and it's going to be 89 suited so only 4 ways he can have hit, his position relative to you is unfortunate, but I don't think he wants to wait for the river to put in the raise because with the peanut gallery that gets to the turn, any straight card is a threat to at least split.

I think I've gotta put in the 5th bet if he 4-bets since his turn line isn't consistent with 89. I'll call the 6-bet.

SixForty · #9 10-16-2006, 08:19 PM

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A lower set is so much more likely than a TAG coldcalling 2 preflop with 89s

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A smart, well playing TAG will cold-call with 98s in this multiway pot without hesitation.

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I do not see why he would not protect his hand on the turn if he had two pairs or a set.

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I agree that I would also expect a raise from him at some point with any set or two pair, or any J. Not to mention that he's 3-betting preflop with TT about 99.9% of the time.

[ QUOTE ]
I see 8 players going to the flop at 10/20. Are live games easier than interent games?

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Unbelievably so.

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Given the description of your opponent I think this is an easy river three-bet and cap call.

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Hey chesspain, I'm curious to know why, against this specific opponent, you think that a 3-bet is easier here? Most other opponents I'd 3-bet without a second thought, but this guy knows what he is doing at the table, and knows how to read my hand and others' hands well. What hand is he raising here that he doesn't raise earlier?

[ QUOTE ]
I think I've gotta put in the 5th bet if he 4-bets since his turn line isn't consistent with 89. I'll call the 6-bet.

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If I 3-bet here, Villain is 4-betting a straight, and simply calling or folding with everything else. If he has TT (which is doubful given his preflop play) he's most likely just calling, and if he has 77 or JT, he's definitely just calling. So going to 5 bets would be spewing by me.

somapopper · #10 10-16-2006, 08:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think I've gotta put in the 5th bet if he 4-bets since his turn line isn't consistent with 89. I'll call the 6-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I 3-bet here, Villain is 4-betting a straight, and simply calling or folding with everything else. If he has TT (which is doubful given his preflop play) he's most likely just calling, and if he has 77 or JT, he's definitely just calling. So going to 5 bets would be spewing by me.

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I was afraid you were going to say that. A couple questions:

1. Are you convinced that this TAG wouldn't 4-bet here without the nuts, or is it like 90% of TAGs in general? (I'd agree that a 6-bet has us beat just about always, but I don't think I could fold it anyway).

2. Do you agree that this line is inconsistent for 89? If so, I assume you put more weight behind the 4-bet than the inconsistency.

3. If a 4-bet always has you beat, shouldn't you fold to it? Would you?