JJ in interesting capped pot situation against 2+2er....

[Xylocain]

:g:

Peel one and fold turn UI.

[Smurph64]

kk have to agree that it's spew then, i think the call is bad too personally but its slightly better than folding, next time I will probably peel and fold ui.

Preflop: 2+2er is BB CO posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG raises, Hero 3-bets with J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4 folds, CO (poster) calls, 2 folds, 2+2er caps, UTG calls, Hero calls, CO calls.

Flop: (16.50 SB) 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] , K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
2+2er bets, UTG folds, Hero raises, CO folds. 2+2er calls

Turn: (9 bb) A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

2+2er calls, Hero....

Totally a big surprise here. Sometimes you get lucky with a mistake. So now I know I am in for a check raise with AA if he thinks I have trip Kings, or he has AK and is afraid of the flush or more likely a set and just calls behind. The other choice is he has pocket QQ's. Can't think of much else he can hold.

Is there any point in betting, because now I am pretty sure I lost and probably am not good if he has Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Is there fold equity betting here against a 2+2er?

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
kk have to agree that it's spew then, i think the call is bad too personally but its slightly better than folding, next time I will probably peel and fold ui.

Preflop: 2+2er is BB CO posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG raises, Hero 3-bets with J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4 folds, CO (poster) calls, 2 folds, 2+2er caps, UTG calls, Hero calls, CO calls.

Flop: (16.50 SB) 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] , K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
2+2er bets, UTG folds, Hero raises, CO folds. 2+2er calls

Turn: (9 bb) A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

2+2er calls, Hero....

Totally a big surprise here. Sometimes you get lucky with a mistake. So now I know I am in for a check raise with AA if he thinks I have trip Kings, or he has AK and is afraid of the flush or more likely a set and just calls behind. The other choice is he has pocket QQ's. Can't think of much else he can hold.

Is there any point in betting, because now I am pretty sure I lost and probably am not good if he has Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Is there fold equity betting here against a 2+2er?

[/ QUOTE ]

At this point, you're stuck betting and hoping you don't get raised. Folding out QQ in a pot this large would be huge (notice QQ peels this flop because of the pot size and hopes to snag a Q -- and probably can't continue), and it's worth gambling. Getting check-raised would royally suck because he has KK a huge huge chunk of the time, but your second nut flush draw would likely be good and you've got to call the raise.

The only reason the bluff is now appropriate is because your play made him play in a way that narrows his hand range to things that might fold (flop call, turn check). You've played in a way to make the pot appropriate to bet at due to its size and villain's line. If you had just peeled the flop, you could have just folded the turn.

[Shillx]

I don't mind getting check/raised at all. All non-pairing [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] outs are good and we can just fold the river UI. At this point his most likely hand is AK but we still have to fire twice if the river bricks since he might fold Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I don't expect him to call with that hand and he is a ~3:1 dog to have it so the river bet figures to be very +EV for us. If you look at it from his POV, we have bet and raised at every point so our range has to be AA, KK and 99 (maybe AK). The hand should be very straight forward from this point on (fire twice and expect to lose to AK).

[marchron]

[ QUOTE ]
kk have to agree that it's spew then, i think the call is bad too personally but its slightly better than folding, next time I will probably peel and fold ui.

Preflop: 2+2er is BB CO posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG raises, Hero 3-bets with J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4 folds, CO (poster) calls, 2 folds, 2+2er caps, UTG calls, Hero calls, CO calls.

Flop: (16.50 SB) 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] , K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
2+2er bets, UTG folds, Hero raises, CO folds. 2+2er calls

Turn: (9 bb) A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

2+2er calls, Hero....

[/ QUOTE ]
Uh . . . what?

Did he check? If so, bet. If he check/raises, that sucks because you have to call when you could have got a freebie, but at least you know that you have 8 outs and they're all clean (every diamond except 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]).

If he just calls and the river blanks, let it rip again to try and fold QQ. The pot is huge and if he checks both big-bet streets, QxQ[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is basically the only hand he can have.

Edit: or you can just read what Shillx said. Sheesh. One question for you though, Gerb:

[ QUOTE ]
At this point his most likely hand is AK . . . The hand should be very straight forward from this point on (fire twice and expect to lose to AK).

[/ QUOTE ]
You don't think a supbro three-bets the flop with AK?

[Shillx]

What does AK beat?

Board: Kd 9s 5d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 29.970% 09.91% 20.06% 17066 34560.00 { AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 70.030% 49.97% 20.06% 86074 34560.00 { KK+, 99, AKs, AdQd, AdJd, AKo }

[tyler_cracker]

lol that your range for hero doesn't include JJ. (yes i realize this is on purpose.)

[QueBob]

[ QUOTE ]
BB is known 2+2 player

[/ QUOTE ]
This fact is meaningless.

[ QUOTE ]

Preflop: 2+2er is BB CO posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG raises, Hero 3-bets with J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 folds, CO (poster) calls, 2 folds, 2+2er caps, UTG calls, Hero calls, CO calls.

Flop: (16.50 SB) 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img](4 players)
2+2er bets, UTG folds, Hero ....

[/ QUOTE ]
...folds immediately. Your odds are not as good as they seem, and they seem pretty piss poor. Chasing these draws because of the current immediate odds is bad chasing. Welcome to reverse implied odds.

[tyler_cracker]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
BB is known 2+2 player

[/ QUOTE ]
This fact is meaningless.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol?

[bravos1]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
BB is known 2+2 player

[/ QUOTE ]
This fact is meaningless.

[/ QUOTE ]

How so?