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#31
09-18-2007, 01:07 AM
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Re: Post here when coaches do something obviously stupid
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Ok, this didn't happen recently but I'm watching the Eagles game and it reminded me of something. When a team is down by 15, and there is, say, 8 or 9 minutes left in the game, and they score a TD. You should ALWAYS go for 2, right? Time after time I see the coaches kick the one, to put themselves down by 8, with the plan (apparently) to go for 2 if and when they score again. Doesn't this seem like totally irrational decision based on the fear of "hopelessness" or whatever if you go for it and fail? It makes no sense. Waiting until the second TD, pinning all your hopes on that, has to be worse than trying, failing, and knowing that you now need to score two more times. [/ QUOTE ] Agreed. Also, there is the situation where late in the game a team down by 14 scores a touchdown. This should be an easy go for 2 descision, but they never do. [/ QUOTE ] Well, to pick a nit, it's only correct when p + (1-p)*p*q > q, where p = probability of converting a 2-pointer and q = probability of winning in overtime (assuming extra points are 100%). If we assume q = 0.5, then going for 2 first is correct when p > 0.382, and I think almost all NFL offenses should be able to convert at this rate from 2 yards out. Dunno about college offenses, since their 2-pointer is from 3 yards out. 
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#32
09-18-2007, 01:09 AM
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Re: Post here when coaches do something obviously stupid
Mota
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#33
09-18-2007, 01:11 AM
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Re: Post here when coaches do something obviously stupid
If you score a touchdown down by 14 in the fourth quarter, you should go for two.
Everyone who plays Madden knows this. NFL coaches either do not know this, or are too afraid of the media to do it.
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#34
09-18-2007, 01:14 AM
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Re: Post here when coaches do something obviously stupid
[ QUOTE ]
Icing the kicker for a chipshot. Oops, now they're going for it. Oops, they scored a touchdown instead. Nice job Reid. [/ QUOTE ] how bout calling your 2nd timeout to ice a kicker when up by 3 with 1 min left?
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#35
09-18-2007, 01:16 AM
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Re: Post here when coaches do something obviously stupid
[ QUOTE ]
If you score a touchdown down by 14 in the fourth quarter, you should go for two. Everyone who plays Madden knows this. NFL coaches either do not know this, or are too afraid of the media to do it. [/ QUOTE ] I feel like a dumb [censored] for not realizing this before since the math is so obvious, but how can I have watched like 5 football games a week for years and never have heard anyone point this out before?
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#36
09-18-2007, 01:17 AM
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Re: Post here when coaches do something obviously stupid
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Icing the kicker for a chipshot. Oops, now they're going for it. Oops, they scored a touchdown instead. Nice job Reid. [/ QUOTE ] how bout calling your 2nd timeout to ice a kicker when up by 3 with 1 min left? [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, who was that? That was retarded. I remembered seeing that and was going to post it but I coulden't remember what game it was.
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#37
09-18-2007, 01:20 AM
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Re: Post here when coaches do something obviously stupid
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Ok, this didn't happen recently but I'm watching the Eagles game and it reminded me of something. When a team is down by 15, and there is, say, 8 or 9 minutes left in the game, and they score a TD. You should ALWAYS go for 2, right? Time after time I see the coaches kick the one, to put themselves down by 8, with the plan (apparently) to go for 2 if and when they score again. Doesn't this seem like totally irrational decision based on the fear of "hopelessness" or whatever if you go for it and fail? It makes no sense. Waiting until the second TD, pinning all your hopes on that, has to be worse than trying, failing, and knowing that you now need to score two more times. [/ QUOTE ] Agreed. Also, there is the situation where late in the game a team down by 14 scores a touchdown. This should be an easy go for 2 descision, but they never do. [/ QUOTE ] Well, to pick a nit, it's only correct when p + (1-p)*p*q > q, where p = probability of converting a 2-pointer and q = probability of winning in overtime (assuming extra points are 100%). If we assume q = 0.5, then going for 2 first is correct when p > 0.382, and I think almost all NFL offenses should be able to convert at this rate from 2 yards out. Dunno about college offenses, since their 2-pointer is from 3 yards out. [/ QUOTE ] I'm kind of tired, but is the reason going for two is effective in this situation because of the choice you get to go for one if you make it?
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#38
09-18-2007, 01:20 AM
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Re: Post here when coaches do something obviously stupid
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Icing the kicker for a chipshot. Oops, now they're going for it. Oops, they scored a touchdown instead. Nice job Reid. [/ QUOTE ] how bout calling your 2nd timeout to ice a kicker when up by 3 with 1 min left? [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, who was that? That was retarded. I remembered seeing that and was going to post it but I coulden't remember what game it was. [/ QUOTE ] I vaguely remember some college game a while back where a team burned their last *two* timeouts to ice the opposing kicker with about a minute left. EDIT: I think it might have been Alabama-Auburn 1997. Anybody remember?
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#39
09-18-2007, 01:25 AM
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Re: Post here when coaches do something obviously stupid
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Ok, this didn't happen recently but I'm watching the Eagles game and it reminded me of something. When a team is down by 15, and there is, say, 8 or 9 minutes left in the game, and they score a TD. You should ALWAYS go for 2, right? Time after time I see the coaches kick the one, to put themselves down by 8, with the plan (apparently) to go for 2 if and when they score again. Doesn't this seem like totally irrational decision based on the fear of "hopelessness" or whatever if you go for it and fail? It makes no sense. Waiting until the second TD, pinning all your hopes on that, has to be worse than trying, failing, and knowing that you now need to score two more times. [/ QUOTE ] Agreed. Also, there is the situation where late in the game a team down by 14 scores a touchdown. This should be an easy go for 2 descision, but they never do. [/ QUOTE ] Well, to pick a nit, it's only correct when p + (1-p)*p*q > q, where p = probability of converting a 2-pointer and q = probability of winning in overtime (assuming extra points are 100%). If we assume q = 0.5, then going for 2 first is correct when p > 0.382, and I think almost all NFL offenses should be able to convert at this rate from 2 yards out. Dunno about college offenses, since their 2-pointer is from 3 yards out. [/ QUOTE ] I'm kind of tired, but is the reason going for two is effective in this situation because of the choice you get to go for one if you make it? [/ QUOTE ] Yeah. Assuming we are capable of getting the ball back and scoring again, we win by - scoring 2, then scoring 1 = p * 1.00 - missing 2, then scoring 2, then winning in OT = (1-p) * p * 0.5
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#40
09-18-2007, 01:30 AM
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Re: Post here when coaches do something obviously stupid
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Ok, this didn't happen recently but I'm watching the Eagles game and it reminded me of something. When a team is down by 15, and there is, say, 8 or 9 minutes left in the game, and they score a TD. You should ALWAYS go for 2, right? Time after time I see the coaches kick the one, to put themselves down by 8, with the plan (apparently) to go for 2 if and when they score again. Doesn't this seem like totally irrational decision based on the fear of "hopelessness" or whatever if you go for it and fail? It makes no sense. Waiting until the second TD, pinning all your hopes on that, has to be worse than trying, failing, and knowing that you now need to score two more times. [/ QUOTE ] Agreed. Also, there is the situation where late in the game a team down by 14 scores a touchdown. This should be an easy go for 2 descision, but they never do. [/ QUOTE ] Well, to pick a nit, it's only correct when p + (1-p)*p*q > q, where p = probability of converting a 2-pointer and q = probability of winning in overtime (assuming extra points are 100%). If we assume q = 0.5, then going for 2 first is correct when p > 0.382, and I think almost all NFL offenses should be able to convert at this rate from 2 yards out. Dunno about college offenses, since their 2-pointer is from 3 yards out. [/ QUOTE ] I'm kind of tired, but is the reason going for two is effective in this situation because of the choice you get to go for one if you make it? [/ QUOTE ] It's about maximizing your probability of winning the game.
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