99 Second Pair on Turn, How's My Line?

[CPHoya]

Oh I get the misunderstanding.

I'm just talking about what the preflop raise tells me about his range (almost nothing). I'm not enumerating what he is probably holding on the turn.

On the flop his call looks supiciously like a float, or overcards, or drawing to the flush. I think big overpairs raise.

On the turn it looks even more like drawing to the flush/overcards he can't let go. His stats don't look, to me, like those of a player who is slowplaying a monster here.

The river doesn't hurt me so I check to induce a bluff, he shoves and I'm thinking it's a transparent bluff from this player. Snap call.

So that was my thinking.

[Vyse]

Your only "read" are his stats, and stats aren't a read. A ton of aggro players slow play like this when they hit a monster. All you beat is a bluff.

[CPHoya]

[ QUOTE ]
All you beat is a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know.

Who value shoves here? Isn't this a bluff LOTS of the time?

[Vyse]

It's often a bluff, but it's often a monster, too. There's nothing wrong with calling off a read, but that's all it is, so there's not much to say.

[yersinia]

What are his AF flop, turn and river? A dude at my table yesterday had 0.7, 1.2, 17 (!!) over 120-ish hands (then he busted and left...). Had seen him make insane AI bluffs on river and made notes of it. Sure enough, I called his Xth AI river bet with a mediocre hand and took the pot against his missed flush.

However, AI value betting on river is insanely EV+ against opponents who routinely will call with mediocre to good hands. If you believe your opponent to call with such a hand, just go for it. Now, all we need to do is find an opponent who talks himself into calling the AI river bet with a mediocre hand... I wouldn't be surprised if notes were written down by the other players, no pun intended.

[tarheeljks]

i may 3bet pf against this guy