NL100 JJ against short stack and reg

[ship_it_trebek]

BTN is winning reg running 16/8/1.2 over 1000 hands. UTG+1 is useless and really isn't a concern here. He tries to steal a decent amount and I 3bet him pretty often and usually don't meet resistance hence my 3bet here. However if I bet the flop here, I feel like I'm folding out all the hands I beat, and only getting action from sets and a tricky QQ-AA. I probably should have shoved the flop but I felt like the only hands I was getting action from that I beat were maybe 88-TT and AKs

Full Tilt Poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $27.15
MP1: $38.50
MP2: $47.05
CO: $29
BTN: $206.10
Hero (SB): $108.75
BB: $98.50
UTG: $112.15

Pre-Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $1, 3 folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $5</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $16</font>, BB folds, UTG+1 calls $15, BTN calls $11

Flop: ($49) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">UTG+1 bets $11.15 and is All-In</font>, BTN calls $11.15, Hero calls $11.15

Turn: ($82.45) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players - 1 is All-In)
Hero shoves/checks?

[AllTheCheese]

Check/fold. (oh and comment on my thread please [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img])

[The Eureka Kid]

Bet/fold $45 is probably my line here, although I would have preferred sticking a raise on the flop, awkward spot.

[BlueBear]

Just lead flop and work from there.

[AllTheCheese]

Bet/folding $45 is nuts. Lead $25 and fold.

[ship_it_trebek]

I'm not b/f here for half my stack here. I really don't like 25 either bc if I do that and he shoves (or raises enough to put me AI) I would be left with around 40-45 bucks and have to call anyway. This why I figured it was shove or fold. I realize the flop play was screwed up and I shouldn't be in this situation in the first place.

[Lansingg]

c/f for me

[olliejen]

First, I don't think this is AA, b/c I think it's pretty standard for this type of player to repop you pre-flop. I generally don't think we can discount KK or QQ at all.

About say, 15 ways you are crushed.

I think it's possible he plays TT this way, and there's one combination of A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and JJ.

So about 8 ways you are way ahead (edit: you're only way ahead of TT, but I'd say you have significant equity edge vs AKs on the turn and fold equity vs the other JJ)

Barring more info, I generally don't think button calls your pre-flop 3-bet with pairs 99-22.

I think you really need to bet this flop in order to give him a chance to fold out hands that crush you (not likely, but possible; if he's got QQ or sometimes KK, you'd be playing AA the exact same way). Also, if you bet, UTG+1 comes along, and Button is still calling, the pot's protected at that point. There aren't many hands he can call w/ impugnity.

By check-calling, you're in a weird spot w/ the stack/pot ratios and no real idea of where you stand in the hand.

Just based on the Bayes, it seems almost twice as likely you're losing here than you're winning. I would check and fold to a bet. if he checks behind, I'd bet probably most rivers.

[wikemang]

c/f turn