AQs vs a Reg - i hate making big folds

[cs3]

<font color="blue"> UTG is relatively unknown. he sat down just recently but seems tight/TAGish. proably decent - never limps, hasnt got out of line or shown down any crap in like 65 hands

main villain is SB. hes a typical ABC TAGfish and probably a marginal winner or slight loser(MuckeDBoy on stars if you know him).
He runs 20/12/1.5 over a large sample and ive played with him lots over the past 2 weeks. He seems okish postflop, but plays pretty timid/passive. I dont recall him ever showing down a bluff or semibluff. He doesnt get stacked very often because he seems to have monsters whenever his stack goes in, but he loses lots of small to medium pots.

I had been playing 25/20ish, taking stabs at lots of pots that looked like nobody wanted them, and splashing around quite a bit in general, but had shown down the goods for the most part when signifigant money went in. Villain knows im more solid than the average stars donk. </font>

Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

Hero (CO): $136.05
BTN: $100
SB: $144.10
BB: $62.80
UTG: $104.50
MP: $153.30

Pre-Flop: A Q dealt to Hero (CO)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $4</font>, MP folds, Hero calls $4, BTN folds, SB calls $3.50, BB folds
<font color="blue">sometimes i 3bet AQ here sometimes not. UTG seemed tight and was new, so i just called. doesnt really matter, and i didnt mind playing a multiway pot </font>

Flop: ($13) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $12</font>, SB calls $12, UTG folds
<font color="blue"> so villain has a draw, or a Q, or a boat? am i missing anything?</font>

Turn: ($37) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $25</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $60</font>, HERO wishes he were out golfing
<font color="blue"> i probably couldve bet the turn a bit harder, but regardless, thats is one cluster [censored] of a turn card.
i have ~100bb's left... what now?</font>

[BlueBear]

There's a fair chance you're probably behind if he's timid postflop. Call and re-evaluate river, give yourself a chance to hit one of your ten-ish outs.

[djshawk]

I agree with bluebear, I think you're behind but can't decide if it's 44 or a flush, flush obv more likely. Getting about 3.5:1 on a call though and you will certainly get enough when you hit your boat to call here. I think I fold a river push though UI for 65bb more.

[Speel Posher]

holy [censored] what a terrible card... i think i call and hope to fill on river. fold to a river push unimproved

[shpanko]

what do we put villain on? Given that range is betting the turn appropriate?

Given your turn bet:

Is he ever raising a worse hand on the turn here? If not then fold.

[Speedlimits]

pretty easy call not sure what the problem is.

[cs3]

[ QUOTE ]
what do we put villain on? Given that range is betting the turn appropriate?

[/ QUOTE ]


thats a good question... given that villains range is polarized towards
(1) small pockets pairs (ie. 44) and
(2) big suited broadways (made flushes + QX) should i even bet this turn?
i think if i had the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] instead of the A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] it would be a much clearer turn check

if i check behind on turn do i call a potsized river bet on a blank?
and if checked to us do we b/f river?

[Spechel EDD]

call and re-evaulate river.

[cs3]

[ QUOTE ]
pretty easy call not sure what the problem is.

[/ QUOTE ]
what? calling seems like the worst play. this is a clear shove or fold imo.
villain is always gonna fire a huge river bet, our hand is exrtememly unlikely to improve, and if we do have the best hand many river cards kill our action or give villain hte best hand.

...unless you meant call the river if we check the turn

[jessica1994]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
pretty easy call not sure what the problem is.

[/ QUOTE ]
what? calling seems like the worst play. this is a clear shove or fold imo.
villain is always gonna fire a huge river bet, our hand is exrtememly unlikely to improve, and if we do have the best hand many river cards kill our action or give villain hte best hand.

...unless you meant call the river if we check the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

with 7-10 outs Calling &gt;&gt;&gt; folding, because if you hit you will get the rest of his stack unless it's a Queen.