Official argue about all things Barry Bonds GOAT thread - Page 35

RedBean · #**341** 11-14-2007, 12:56 PM

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*snip*

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Let me boil the whole discussion about Hank's increase down, since you are so insistent on refusing to admit Hank saw had a late career surge:

#1. You said players don't start hitting homeruns at a higher rate in their decline phase, and that Bonds doing so was unprecedented.
- I said that Hank Aaron saw a similar increase in HR rate from 35-39 vs 30-34, and used stats and facts and stuff to prove it.

(RedBean 7-0, PAT is Good)

#2. You then said it could be completely explained by park factors, explaining it was all due to Hank at home.
- I showed that Hank's ROAD rate increased as well, and proved it with stats and facts and stuff.

(RedBean 14-0, PAT is Good)

#3. You said that the league rate was artifically depressed due to the switch of 3 existing teams to "pitcher friendly parks".
- I said that 2 of those 3 new parks saw an increase in HR rate overall as compared to the stadiums they replaced, and I proved it with stats and facts and stuff.

(RedBean 21-0, PAT is Good)

#4. You said that Hank's increase was a result of expansion and rules changes.
- I said that Hank's rate relative to the league increased significantly, which neutralized the effects of the expansion and rules as compared to his contemporaries.

(RedBean 28-0, PAT is Good)

#5. You said that AT&T Park "hurt" Bonds.
- I said that Barry enjoyed a better rate at home than he did on the road, and I proved it with stats and facts and stuff.

(RedBean 35-0, PAT is Good)

#6. You cherry-picked your own age periods and said that it was different when comparing ages 32, 33, 35 vs 36-39.
- I said it was still the same increase, and I proved it with stats and facts and stuff.

(RedBean 42-0, PAT is Good)

#7. You then decided to compare ages 28-42 and see if it was different.
- I said it wasn't, and proved it with stats and facts and stuff.

(RedBean 49-0, PAT is Good)

#8. You started quoting my posts from a week ago out of context, and misapply them to current discussion, in some sort of an attempt to discredit me directly, rather than focus on the issue we are discussing.
- I think this one speaks for itself.

(SAFETY, RedBean 51-0)

#9. You went back to the same argument about it being due to Hank's home park.
- I said again he saw an increase on the road, and once again, proved it with stats and facts and stuff.

(turnover on downs)
(RedBean kneels for -3 yards, clock expires,)
(FINAL SCORE: 51-0)

I mean, seriously, guy, it's run it's course, and now you're just crying about the officiating.

The facts remain:

1. Hank saw an increase in his HR rate in his later years.
2. His rate increased compared relative to the league, to neutralize any benefit of expansion and rules changes.
3. His road rate increased as well, so it isn't just due to his home park.
4. You're refusal to concede these points because of your preconception of Bonds is blatantly obvious.
5. You are a glutton for punishment.
6. Not quite sure why you are so intent on showing otherwise, as no manner of stats are proof of anything unnatural, and only proof of greatness....and I've got about 10 more HOF'ers waiting in the wings who saw increases in HR rate after age 35....and it would get rather boring seeing you rationalize each one of them.

RedBean · #**342** 11-14-2007, 12:59 PM

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Did Aaron enjoy a late career surge? Yeah, probably.

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Finally.

RedBean · #**343** 11-14-2007, 01:38 PM

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How tall is the right field wall?

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So nice to be discussing something somewhat productive instead of debunking you're tired Hank HR Rate rationalizations.

BTW, I love talking about baseball parks.

Anyway...how tall is the wall?

Um...Tall enough where it has a negative impact on line-drive home-run hitters, but not tall enough to have an impact on fly-ball home-run hitters.

Think about that one for a second.

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What is the prevailing wind direction?

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They actually rotated the stadium design 90 degrees prior to construction to put the prevailing wind at the back of the stadium, so the walls could block it and make it less noticeable for fans, as compared to old Candlestick.

For the most part, what wind they do get up high tends to either blow out from right to left, 5-to-11, veering from foul-right across the right-pole, or in from left to right, in a 10-to-4 direction when facing out from home plate.

And despite what many think, there is such a thing as a wind-aided homerun when the wind is blowing in....again, think about it for a second.

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If you can put some numbers up that show lefties across the board benefit from SBC/Pac Bell more power to you.

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Lefties across the board? Probably not, as line-drive hitters and gap-hitters are going to suffer greatly, as noticed by the disparity it HR rates of guys like Steve Finley, Shawn Green, Todd Helton, etc at AT&T vs other parks.

Not to mention, left-handed dead-pull fly-ball HR hitters not named Bonds make up a very, very small amount of at-bats from the overall sample....so their numbers are lost in the shuffle of Durhams, Vizquels, etc...

But when you look at the real big mashers, the big time lefty lumber.... you see and increase in HR rate for big time lefty HR hitters at AT&T park over both their career rates, and their previous rates at Candlestick...albeit the sample sizes are small, because their aren't many big-time lefty mashers, and they would all be on the visiting team and not have played much in the stadium.

The exact opposite would be seen for big time righty mashers, as their HR rates in AT&T would be lower than their career rates, and even lower than their previous Candlestick rates.

Obviously, this has little to do with the discussion of Bonds...but it's fun to discuss....as several folks have AT&T pegged as tough all around, based on the data collected....but we have to remember we're looking at a small 8-year sample relative to other parks, the majority of which is right-handed hitters, half of the overall sample is crappy Giants hitters, and even smaller is the amount of true lefty dead-pull fly-ball hitters not named Bonds, whom it looks like based on what little sample we have, benefit from the park.

Look no further than the exaggerated example from history of the Polo Grounds, which was for the most part a neutral park, park factor wise, and a nearly impossible place HR-wise for gap hitters... with it's 480-490' center field, 440-450' right-center...yet Mel Ott made a HOF career being a dead-pull hitter and feasting on the short 257' right field line, hitting homeruns at a ridiculous rate compared to his road rate.

manbearpig · #**344** 11-14-2007, 01:50 PM

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Did Aaron enjoy a late career surge? Yeah, probably.

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Finally.

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Well, I said this on the 9th:

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So did his normalized numbers get better as he got older? In my opinion, maybe slightly. But certainly not to the point of going from 2.5x the league rate to 3.75x the league rate based on himself alone. But that certainly sets a precedent for improving as you age.

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Which I think is true. I think you would agree that is a smaller increase than his overall rate:

From age 30-34: Hank's rate was 2.665 times the entire league.

From age 35-39: Hank's rate on the Road was 3.24 times the entire league.

Difference of .575. Is that significant? Sure it is. Aaron showed an increase in relation to the league.

But the whole point of this was to point out that Bonds increase relative to the league is a much bigger jump than Aarons.

From age 30-34: Barry's rate was 2.580 times the entire league.

From age 35-39: Barry's rate on the Road was 3.64 times the entire league.

Difference of 1.06.

Barry almost doubles him up in his increase relative to the league. Is this not relevant if you are trying to say that Bonds and Aaron saw similar increases relative to the league? Does this not show you that Bonds had a much greater increase than Aaron did?

btmagnetw · #**345** 11-14-2007, 02:02 PM

i don't think redbean utilizes the italicize function enough.

oh wait.....

RedBean · #**346** 11-14-2007, 02:12 PM

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Barry almost doubles him up in his increase relative to the league.

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^^^
*alert* Fuzzy math application *alert*

Bonds didn't "double him up" in the increase.

Your taking a number derived from dividing relative HR rates to find the factor, and then attempting to arrive at the difference between two independent samples, and then express them back as a factor.

At least, I think that is what you're doing, and it's about as wrong as you kissing you're own sister.

Here, let's simplify, and go back to HR rate's for both the player and the league....without complicaticating it for you with relative comparisions, since you seem to have difficulty both understanding them, and applying math to gauging their differences.

From 30-34 to 35-39, Hank saw a 48% increase in his HR Rate.
The league during the same time saw a 6% increase.

From 30-34 to 35-39, Bonds saw a 59% increase in HR rate.
The league during the same time saw a 9% increase.

One guy's HR rate improved 48% when the league improved 6%.
One guy's HR rate improved 59% when the league improved 9%.

That isn't "doubling up".

In fact, it's a pretty clear precedent for a significant late-career power surge relative to the league.

manbearpig · #**347** 11-14-2007, 02:21 PM

I agree with your assumption that dead pull fly ball hitters would benefit from SBC.

Here is a link to a simulation hardball times did to come up with HR PF's. They have dead RF at AT&T as being above average for HR's. But they also have RCF rated as the worst spot for HR's in the league, and CF is close to the bottom.HBT.

But if Bonds hit the majority of his HR's to dead right this is no big deal. But when we pull up his spray charts, BB spray chart we see that he abused RCF. Adding in his fly outs we see that Barry hits balls more to CF and RCF then dead RF.

So while he benefits from the short RF wall, the majority of his HRs + airborne balls in play go more to RCF and CF.

Which it seems to me would make AT&T overall have a negative impact on his HR's.

RedBean · #**348** 11-14-2007, 02:37 PM

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Which it seems to me would make AT&T overall have a negative impact on his HR's.

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Yet, oddly enough, his home HR rate is better than his road HR rate from 2000-2004.

I theorize that big fly lefty HR hitters benefit slightly from AT&T, although I admit their isn't a mountain of sample size to show it, due to the lack of big fly lefty HR hitters not named Bonds who have played alot of games in AT&T.

But here is the best we got, based on what we have.....

Fun facts on AT&T Park's effect on big fly lefty vs righty HR hitters: 

Methodology: Guys who played in AT&T Park who have at least 400 career homeruns, except for Bonds.

(I arbitrarily selected these guys because they are generally homerun hitters who played in both AT&T and Candlestick)

Sample Size: Obviously small...there are only 5 lefties, and 8 righties for 13 guys total....and they all played for the visiting team so they only played a few games each year in SF....we're looking at about 1425 at-bats total between all 13 guys in San Fran.

"The Lefties" are: 
Junior
Raffy
Thome
McGriff
Delgado

"The Righties" are: 
Sosa
McGwire
ARod
Big Hurt
Manny
Sheff
Bags
Piazza

AB/HR Rate, ranked in order of best to worst: 
The Lefties at AT&T Park: 14.3
The Lefties total career rate: 16.0
The Lefties at Candlestick: 22.4

The lefties have done better at AT&T than their career rate, and they did worse at Candlestick.

AB/HR Rate, ranked in order of best to worst: 
The Righties at Candlestick: 13.8
The Righties total career rate: 14.9
The Righties at AT&T Park: 15.7

The trend here is reversed, where the righties have done better at Candlestick than their career rate, and they did worse at AT&T.

RedBean · #**349** 11-14-2007, 02:45 PM

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But if Bonds hit the majority of his HR's to dead right this is no big deal. But when we pull up his spray charts, BB spray chart we see that he abused RCF.

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Hate to nit here, but when you use that spray chart, and select "all years", you can see that it only shows "50" homeruns.

Bonds hit 160 at AT&T, so it's missing 110 of his 160 homeruns when you select "all years".

Though when you look year to year, it seems fairly accurate, although I think what you are calling RCF is actually RF....straightaway RF is from the crease to the pole, and that is where the majority of his bombs reside.

manbearpig · #**350** 11-14-2007, 02:56 PM

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Barry almost doubles him up in his increase relative to the league.

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From 30-34 to 35-39, Hank saw a 48% increase in his HR Rate.
The league during the same time saw a 6% increase.

From 30-34 to 35-39, Bonds saw a 59% increase in HR rate.
The league during the same time saw a 9% increase.

One guy's HR rate improved 48% when the league improved 6%.
One guy's HR rate improved 59% when the league improved 9%.

That isn't "doubling up".

In fact, it's a pretty clear precedent for a significant late-career power surge relative to the league.

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Use the road numbers since we are trying to stay away from home bias:

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From age 30-34: Hank's rate was 2.665 times the entire league.

From age 35-39: Hank's rate on the Road was 3.24 times the entire league.

Difference of .575. Is that significant? Sure it is. Aaron showed an increase in relation to the league.

But the whole point of this was to point out that Bonds increase relative to the league is a much bigger jump than Aarons.

From age 30-34: Barry's rate was 2.580 times the entire league.

From age 35-39: Barry's rate on the Road was 3.64 times the entire league.

Difference of 1.06.

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Aaron:
(3.24-2.665)/3.24= 17.7% increase over his previous outpacing of the league.

Bonds:
(3.64-2.58)/3.64= 29.1% increase over his previous outpacing of the league.

So Bonds saw a 11% "bigger" gain relative to the league than did Aaron, when using road HR rate. Not a double up, but still a big difference.