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#33
03-19-2007, 02:58 PM
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Re: bottom set with deep stacks
[ QUOTE ]
to be honest, i really wanted to fold and might have if i had a little more time. the time was running out and i wasn't sure so i pushed. the reason i think you can maybe fold here is that his bet sizes were begging for a call. he checked and then min-raised. i 3 bet the size of the pot and he 4 bets not much more than a min-raise again. he has to also realize that we are deep stacked. i think my 3 bet slows him down with aces. atleast he will want to see what the turn brings. if he has a draw, he is either going to call my 3 bet, or raise enough to get me to fold. i just think both of his raises are begging for calls which would indicate 66. i think if he has 66 even 50% of the time here, it would be a fold considering the stacks. [/ QUOTE ] This seems like a pretty results oriented response. You pretty much have to push for 200bbs. Your statement about folding if you think he has 66 50% of the time isn't correct either. 
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#34
03-19-2007, 03:53 PM
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Re: bottom set with deep stacks
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] to be honest, i really wanted to fold and might have if i had a little more time. the time was running out and i wasn't sure so i pushed. the reason i think you can maybe fold here is that his bet sizes were begging for a call. he checked and then min-raised. i 3 bet the size of the pot and he 4 bets not much more than a min-raise again. he has to also realize that we are deep stacked. i think my 3 bet slows him down with aces. atleast he will want to see what the turn brings. if he has a draw, he is either going to call my 3 bet, or raise enough to get me to fold. i just think both of his raises are begging for calls which would indicate 66. i think if he has 66 even 50% of the time here, it would be a fold considering the stacks. [/ QUOTE ] This seems like a pretty results oriented response. You pretty much have to push for 200bbs. Your statement about folding if you think he has 66 50% of the time isn't correct either. [/ QUOTE ] it might not be correct but i'd be interested to see the numbers. to keep things simple, say he has 66 50% of the time, a big draw 40% and an overpair or air 10%. at this point i'm only in for $210, i have $1,230 left. i'm going to lose 98% of the time when he has 66. out of the 40% where he is drawing, i'm going to lose about 30% of those. so that would equal losing 61% of the time. and when he has an over pair or air 10% of the time, i think he probably folds to a push so i don't pick up any more money. so basically, i lose my stack 61% of the time, i win his stack 29% of the time, and i win what is in the pot 10% of the time. explain what i'm missing.
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#35
03-19-2007, 03:59 PM
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Re: bottom set with deep stacks
for those interested in the actual results......
Full Tilt Poker $3/$6 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game 5 Players LegoPoker Hand Converter <font color="black">Stack Sizes</font> CO: $609 BTN: $678 SB: $1217.85 Hero (BB): $1433.15 UTG: $408.35 <font color="black">Preflop:</font> 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($9, 5 players) UTG folds, CO folds, BTN folds, SB calls $3, <font color="red">Hero raises to $18</font>, SB calls $12 <font color="black">Flop:</font> 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($36, 2 players) SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $30</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $60</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $192</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $426</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises all in to $1,421.15</font>, SB calls all in for $776.85 Uncalled bet of $218.30 returned to Hero <font color="black">Turn:</font> 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]] ($2441.7, 2 players) No action <font color="black">River:</font> 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]] ($2441.7, 2 players) No action <font color="black">Results:</font> SB had 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (three of a kind, Sixes) and won $2,438.70 Hero had 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (three of a kind, Fours) Final Pot: $2438.70 ($3.00 rake)
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#36
03-19-2007, 04:12 PM
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Re: bottom set with deep stacks
depends what you know about him... will he reraise with top pair and a flush draw????? If not you're probobly up against pocket tens and will likely lose a bit pot, hard to lay down.
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