Folding top pair (with a nice kicker)

[Paul77]

Greetings,

I've been playing live poker for quite some time, and online too, so of course I know this is a "it depends" scenario based on the flop, the size of the pot, and the type of players. But overall, I'd be curious to see different perspectives on when to fold top pair, and when you put your opponent on a set.

For instance, you have AK, flop comes 4s Kd 2d; you raised before the flop, two players who were already in call, and one guy cold calls. It's checked to you, and you bet, and then it's raised and the other two players who checked fold. I don't like a call here, as that's just too weak, so I'd likely re-raise to see where I'm at; he might have KQ, but he could have the pocket pair too. If he re-raises back, the pot is large enough to call another small bet, but if the blank comes on the turn, how do you like this? Check-call down to the river, or check-fold, giving him the set? A situation came up in my last session, in your typical loose game, and I limped with QJo, several callers before the flop, so the pot isn't too bad, flop comes 6-4-Q; I bet, it's quickly raised, and the guy has his arms folded and is leaning in so I'm thinking he's got something good. I call, and catch the jack on the turn and queen on the river; he had 64 (I think he was the small blind). So sets are quite hard to see, and top pair, good kicker is tough to get away from, especially in low-limit. Obviously in a small pot, I don't mind a lay-down, and have no problem laying it down on the turn when you are multi-way and there is a raise from a player after the potential straight or flush has been completed. That's fairly obvious as you watch people and how they react to the card that comes out. I'm looking at more like situations on the flop as described, where you still have top pair on the turn. You are getting about 5 or 6 to 1 on your money in most cases on the turn if there has been heavy action, but that is still way behind if you are up against a set.

So, to sum up: when do you put the guy on the set vs. having top pair? (Small pairs don't raise typically pre-flop, which is one clue if they've called after your raise and now bet or rasie into you after you raised pre-flop, which usually means trouble to me. Of course last session I also had a player check-raise me on the river as I had top pair, kings, coutnerfited by an ace, and he had nothing.)

I appreciate any thoughts - say hi if you're ever up at Canterbury Park [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img])

[BigBadBabar]

calling down is fine if he will keep betting with a worse hand. always playing raise or fold is a good way to increase variance and have guys start to bluff you.
math and pot odds are also pretty key to take into account.
this are pretty key concepts so make sure you master them! good luck [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Bob T.]

OK, here is my one hand where I did it.

LIve at the park, I can't remember if it was 8-16 or 6-12, but UTG is a tight aggressive player, and open limps. The flop comes something like the Q64 that you mentioned before. I might have had QJo or something like that, I can't remember exactly, but I bet, and UTG raises. There were a ccouple of coldcallers, and I thought for a little bit. It wouldn't make sense that he had a better queen than I did, because he would have openraised. He couldn't have two pair on the hand, or a worse queen, because he played better than that. So the only hand that he could have that made sense to me was a set, and so I folded, and someone paid him off, and he did indeed have a set.

[Paul77]

Thanks for the feedback; of course size of pot is always something I take into account, and pre-flop play. When I've got two small cards out there on the flop especially and have top pair, and am looking at someone who did not raise pre-flop but called, I often think "set," but things can get tricky, especially with an ace, when I have AQ for instance, as he might have an ace with a smaller kicker and have put me on QQ, JJ or TT. I personally like the raise on the flop move myself, meaning if someone bets into me after I've raised I can see where I'm at, as they would re-raise with a set. I guess a lot of it comes down to your gut instinct too at the moment. Surprisingly, I didn't find much on this topic as I was going over my copy of SSHE for Advanced Players; they certainly cover this as a "strong" or "very strong" hand but don't discuss much on when to fold top pair.

Paul