I'm dreaming about the WSOP PLO8 events, but am I being realistic?

[brimelian]

I'm looking for an honest assessment from the vets on this forum. Please do NOT be gentle. I want honest feedback. Also, please bear with my lengthy introduction. :-)

I've been playing O8 cash games on FTP, PS and several prima sites for 2 years now. I started with a $100 deposit playing microlimits and have worked my way up to the $200PL tables and a roll of $9K. I've logged tens of thousands of hands and have won or placed in many PLO8 tournaments along the way, but never with a buy-in higher than $24.

The bankroll is nice, but I'm really just playing for fun. I take the game seriously and consider myself a student, but I'm a working professional with 3 beautiful kids and a very understanding wife. I play at night and on the weekends when I have free time. I average about 20 hours per week at the online tables and have never played O8 in a brick and mortar casino.

At some point, be it this year or next, I would like to use some of the money I've won and play in two or three WSOP O8 events. I want to experience the atmosphere and have fun with it. I want to "live the dream", if only for a few days - but I also don't want to throw away the roll I've built on a pipe dream.

That leads to my questions. Given my experience and bankroll, am I wasting my time and money trying to play in these events this year or next? Am I dreaming to think I could make it past the first day and finish in the money in any of these events? Instead of focusing on bracelet events, should I use my roll to play in larger buy-in online tournaments and prove my success there before moving on? Should I get some B&M experience before making such a trip? Will I *ever* be ready?

Sorry for all the questions, but I'm looking for some honest feedback. Any and all advice would be welcomed. Thanks in advance!!

[templar999]

I don't know what the buy-in for the PLO8 tournaments at the WSOP are, but if you can comfortably play with a fifth or a quarter of you bankroll on a tournament (not to mention expenses) just for the experience and be okay with not cashing, then by all means do so. If you have solid records for the past 2 years, there's no reason that you cant finish in the money.

A couple of other suggestions:
1. You should probably play 08 at a B&M a few times before the WSOP even if you can only find limit games. One difficulty is remembering your suits as your cards aren't visible on a computer screen. You don't want to be checking constantly.
2. It sounds like a satellite or a supersatellite would be perfect for you. Risk only one or two buy-ins of PL200 instead of a few thousand.

[Truthiness24]

You should go, without hesitation. If you're the guy I've seen on WPX, you have at least the game that I have, and I'm going. I've played lots of O8 live over the last few years. It isn't much of an adjustment.

I expect internet players that we know to dominate this event, and I expect to see more than a few of the posters here at the end of it. I also expect lots of dead money from LO8 players that don't get it, and PLO8 players that think they get it but don't. Because of this, I think that anyone with a reasonable degree of proficiency has a legitimate chance to cash. I think.

And keep an eye out for 2/5 PLO8 cash games that week .. I'll be asking to start an interest list everywhere I go.

[PokerFink]

Brimelian,

Just browsing around 2+2 and I found your post - I'm not an O8 player but I can offer some general advice on Vegas and the WSOP.

1) Definitely get some live experience first. This is a must. Preferbly PLO8 or LO8, but live Omaha games can be hard to find in Vegas. Even if you can't find any Omaha games, play some 1/2 NLHE or something - anything - just to get live experience. And browse the B&M forum for general tips on etiquette, rules, etc. (Ignore this if you do have B&M experience - I can't tell from your post if you don't have any experience or just don't have live PLO8 experience).

2) The Vegas games peak during the WSOP - especially when the Main Event qualifiers (donkeys) arrive. The NLHE games are absurd good, and some of that action spills into the other games. Players will be sitting at 2/5 PLO8 who have literally never played the game before while they wait for NLHE table. The Rio is your best bet to find Omaha games during the WSOP. While the Rio is a terrible room compared to the nicer places on the strip, the action is excellent, and they spread a wide variety of games and limits.

3) Don't be afraid to move up in limits. A 2/5 PLO8 game is higher than what you're used to, but will probably be softer than what you're used to as well. 2/5 NLHE in Vegas is no harder than 100NLHE online, and I imagine it's the same for PLO8. Don't be afraid to move even higher if the games are good! The WSOP cash games are a great opportunity to take a shot on a limited bankroll.

4) I take it you seperate your poker bankroll from your "life" bankroll, and that's fine. But don't be afraid to subsidize your poker bankroll with some real-life funds for this trip. Heck, take the wife and kids and write-off your expenses as a vacation =).

5) JUST DO IT! Goodluck.

[brimelian]

Thanks to everyone for your encouragement. I've decided to play some satellites and make the $24+2 $3K Guaranteed at FTP a regular part of my playing routine. Realistically, I probably won't make it to Vegas this year, but if all goes well I am planning to play all the PL8 events in 2008, and maybe one NLHE event just for grins.

And yes, I am that player on WPX. I'm only playing there and at FTP these days, with most of my roll collecting interest. I made a withdrawal from Stars a week before the Neteller fiasco and don't plan on redepositing until they offer another bonus (I just don't log enough hours each week to make their rewards program a good deal for me).

[Oblivious]

Given your record, playing the tournement itself would be +EV for you (this does not include expenses). The problem is, youre risking a big chunk of your BR to buy into one MT tourn. This is a pretty high variance decision. If your value in the cash games can make up for expenses, and you see value in having a vacation and going on an adventure for a week, then I'd say go for it.

[TStoneMBD]

i dont have much experience with plo8 or wsop plo events, but i think i might be able to give you a pretty decent opinion on the matter. you may be +ev in the plo events, but i would guess that you wouldnt be by that much. a 9k bankroll doesnt show all that much success and even though you have proven yourself to be a winning plo player at small limits, players who arent plo players but have great poker sense and experience are probably better plo players than you. what im trying to say is that just because youre a proven winner in small stakes plo doesnt mean youre a better plo player than skilled tournament pros who dont even play plo. there will probably be some decent dead money in the plo tournaments but i imagine they will also have alot of very skilled players in them, particularly european. the buyins are too large for your bankroll. if youre just looking to gamble then perhaps you can take a shot, but your edge probably isnt that large and as you should know, the variance is insane. regardless, good luck. sorry for the tough words.

[brimelian]

[ QUOTE ]
if youre just looking to gamble then perhaps you can take a shot, but your edge probably isnt that large and as you should know, the variance is insane. regardless, good luck. sorry for the tough words.

[/ QUOTE ]

No apologies necessary. This is exactly the kind of feedback that I'm looking for. Thanks very much for the honest analysis. It validates my decision to stick to qualifiers and higher buy-in online events for now and give myself another year of experience. Regardless, I'm certain that no amount of online experience will truly prepare me for what I'll face in a live bracelet event.

[Truthiness24]

Forget the trolls. This is a once a year (maybe once ever for you) kind of shot. This isn't about your bankroll -- this is about your head, and the experience, and the good time. Of course it's high variance for your bankroll. You wouldn't have asked/mentioned it if you weren't insecure about it. Go anyway.

But a point was made that I hadn't considered: experienced live tourney pros will have an edge on you -- not with the numbers, but with the live action. I play better in person so I'm looking forward to exploiting pros that think they can get by on their gut without knowing the math cold, and internet nerds that don't know how to read (or conceal their own) tells.

You need to get out and play with REAL PEOPLE, even it it's NLH, even if it's 2/4 limit, even if it's a home game, even if it's a losing proposition. And when you do, don't worry about winning -- this is an investment. Watch the people. It's the best part of poker.

[PiquetteAces]

If U have never played any form of omaha in a b&m'casino, & always online, U'll find the game so slow !

They look at the board & their hole card 10 seconds triing to find a full house or a low, when the board make it impossible to have one !

- jpp