B&M LO8 3/6 Full Kill hand

[Little Wing]

A hand from today in the 3/6 LO8 game.

This was a full kill hand, so it's being played at 6/12. The way this is done where I play, the SB and BB post the regular amounts, $1 and $3, and everyone else who calls has to put in the kill amount of $6 (the person with the kill button has already posted a live $6 blind). Anyway, when it gets back to the blinds, they fold, complete to $6, or raise to $12.

In this hand, I'm in the BB and get dealt A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and after 4 limpers it gets around to me and I cheerily toss in another $3 to complete.

Flop comes T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I check and a guy in middle position who has been playing a lot of hands and is pretty aggressive bets out, two others call and I call.

Turn is (T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]) 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

MP pets, LP calls, and I call.

Thoughts on all streets appreciated.

[jlocdog]

Why are you calling the flop? You're getting 8-1 on the call going for an 11-1 card (one of 4 Q's).

By the turn you're getting 6.5-1 to chase a 3.8-1 so it seems mandatory. Even if we discount the 2 'tainted' outs (Ts and 9s) your getting layed 4.4-1 so it seems like a no brainer.

Beware of creating pot odds in LO8. It is easy to consistantly find yourself in these spots when you make questionable calls on earlier streets.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Thoughts on all streets appreciated.

[/ QUOTE ]Little Wing - Played perfectly.

This hand is not much about what cards your opponents hold. Let's simply assume someone has two pairs or better. This hand is all about either having favorable odds to draw or not.

You do not have a very good starting hand, but it is not truly awful either. I like your calling for a half bet with four limpers in the pot.

The flop leaves you with an inside straight draw plus a back-door low draw. Give yourself four outs (queens) plus one more out for the back-door flush draw, a total of five outs.

Figure there are 45 unknown cards after the flop and 5 of them are your outs. Thus it's about 40 to 5 (or 8 to 1) against you going into the turn. There is $48 less the collection in the pot. Thus you're not quite getting 8 to 1 direct pot odds, and another negative is that you may have to split the high half with another player who also makes the same straight. However, you also have implied pot odds and with them, clearly you have favorable odds to call a single bet at this point. If you miss on the turn and also do not pick up outs for spades on the turn, you will have to fold to a third round bet.

And then, as it turns out, you pick up more outs for the spades on the turn. Now you have three outs for the non-spade queens plus seven outs for non-pairing spades. Thus now the odds against you making a winning scooper are somewhere between 44 to 10 and 42 to 12. Call it about 4 to 1 against you. And you're getting about 6 to 1 direct pot odds plus even better implied pot odds. Again you clearly have favorable odds to call.

You're probably going to lose this. After all the odds are about 4 to 1 against you. But you have a good bet, since you win at least 6 for 1 when you win. Those are enormously favorable odds, even though you should fully expect to lose. But by taking bets like this one, when you do win, you'll more than make up for the losses.

Buzz

[fishyak]

PF - 1/2 off discount to close the action and join the party - absolutely - count me in.

Flop is the only weak spot but even that is cool if you can check and wind up not facing a cold call by the time it gets back to you. jlocdog didn't credit you for the value of your backdoors and if it goes against you by either facing a cold call or hitting a no help turn card, you can drop out of the race without further $. I especially like the fact that your flush draw, although runner-runner, is to the nut flush. You are drawing to quality hands that could scoop.

A turned spade means you will see the river card. Lots of outs to winning hands. I played these kind of hands all Friday night - missed on all them - went home broke - but didn't feel that I had played badly.

[Little Wing]

jlocdog, I wasn't too crazy about the flop call either which was why I posted the hand. I thought the preflop call completing the kill and also the turn call with the nut flush draw were both fine. The flop call was what I was stewing about.

Anyway, thanks for the responses.

[Little Wing]

That's what happened to me today too, but I guess not a badly as you (I only lost $12 in about 6 hours of play). Had several A23's and A24's that just never came in. Every time I had a high-only hand the flop would come 257. Better luck next time I guess. Thanks for responding.

[jlocdog]

Little Wing,

As Buzz pointed out (and which I failed to) was your backdoor draw does account for something. Not so convinced that implied odds will make up for lack of pot odds since it seems your hand may be very transparent if you connect (the straight that is) but then again, maybe they will have manipulated the pot in such a way as to price themselves into a call on your bet/raise. One thing going against you is that you are drawing (on the flop) to a hand thatcan still get redrawn on. I think this ppoint can almost be used to counter the backdoor 'out'. Maybe not ....

[EffenDolts]

With two people in the pot before you call the flop bet, you can't possibly believe there are four queens left in the deck? Even if the lead bettor doesn't have a made nut str8, you have to figure that one or both of the villains started with a high hand. Two high hands are going to have at least one Q by random chance.

Fold the flop.

Effen

[jlocdog]

EffenDolts,

Thats is a very bad way to look at this. Villian/s could very well have set/2pair/dummy straight/TPTK (stretch but can't discount).

If you have a flush draw do you assume villian has to have "atleast' one since he has 4 cards and there would be no way he would continue without either a draw himself or atleast to take one of your possible outs away?

Stop this thinking. You will see monsters around every corner if you continue.

[EffenDolts]

[ QUOTE ]

Thats is a very bad way to look at this. Villian/s could very well have set/2pair/dummy straight/TPTK (stretch but can't discount).

If you have a flush draw do you assume villian has to have "atleast' one since he has 4 cards and there would be no way he would continue without either a draw himself or atleast to take one of your possible outs away?


[/ QUOTE ]

No, this is a completely different case. If I flop NFD with only two of the suit in my hand, then I could calculate my outs as 9 out of 45 unseen cards. If I assume that villain has exactly one of my suit (the most likely case), then my outs are 8 out of 41. This is barely any worse odds for making my NFD. In this sense, I agree with you that this makes little difference in your odds of drawing out.

However, in the hand in question, you have to put the lead bettor on a high hand most of the time and A78x some of the time. He could also have A8Qx, which uses up an out. Then, you have two callers in front of you. Note that it is very improbable that the bettor and callers all have just set/2-pair with no Queen. (This would require that they have at least 6 of the remaining 9 cards that match the flop ranks.) The 9, T, and J are crappy starting cards, and most sane people only play these if they have some connecting cards. In a live game, I suppose 789T could be the connecting hand, but a Q is more likely than 78[9TJ].

Another way of looking at is is that there are 16 unseen high cards. If your remaining oppenents limped half decent high hands, they probably hold at least nine of them among their 12 cards. Even randomly, this means they hold 2 queens. Since they like the flop, they almost certainly hold at least 2 queens between them.

I don't like to limp high hands with 9's, but many players will limp 4 cards above 8 or hands like AHHMs, so you could be up against 3 hands with only 3 high cards each. It is still hard to see how you could get to this situation without at least nine high cards and probably 2 queens in your opponents hands.

Any way I slice it, I still think you have at least 2 queens accounted for by your opponents. This leaves you with 2 outs in 33 cards, plus back-door draws.

People who like high flops tend to have a lot of high cards in their hands. People who love suited flops almost never have 4 of that suit when you hold the NFD. Big difference, IMO.

Effen