#11
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Re: Ingenious, No?
I drew a graph to show the $EV of different calling probabilities. Red line is for the push, and green line is for the pot sized bet.
What this shows is that your push needs to generate much more FE in order to gain the same +EV. The neutral point of 0EV is at 50% for PSB, and 30% for push. Draw your own conclusions. |
#12
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Re: Ingenious, No?
You need to consider the strong possibility that he was drawing to the flush - with QdJd/7d8d if not AdXd. His flop min raise does not look like an A or a set trying to protect itself from draws, his turn bet looks like a draw. When bluffing, it's not a great idea to represent a hand that your opponent is quite likely to have - especially OOP.
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