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#472
11-17-2007, 08:19 PM
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Re: College Football Week 12
[ QUOTE ]
HS is a completely different ballgame. Most teams can't throw the ball, & if they're undersized up front against a monster D, what are they going to do? I can see giving away the ball in certain spots. [/ QUOTE ] This is my general thinking. Though I think that possessions do have value obviously. For that reason the defense has to be completely dominating against an offense. There has to be a relatively high chance of a turnover. The chances for a fluke touchdown on ST or a break out offensive play are calculated risks. I do think there is a point where this become +EV. 
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#473
11-17-2007, 08:29 PM
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Re: College Football Week 12
God damn, how do you lose to western michigan at home and give up like 500 yards? I hate college football.
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#476
11-17-2007, 08:55 PM
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Re: College Football Week 12
[ QUOTE ]
come on WVU! [/ QUOTE ] I just don't think I could handle watching WVU in another January bowl. I'm all about them losing the next 2 games and Cincy going to a BCS bowl.
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#477
11-17-2007, 09:35 PM
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Re: College Football Week 12
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] The special teams are important too. Let's say both teams typically start on the 25 after a kickoff, and average 30 yards net on a punt. If that's the case, the offenses have to average less than 20 yards per possession to make kicking both halves +EV. Obviously, for every extra yard of field position you expect to get off a kickoff or extra yard you can get on a punt, that's one less yard the offenses have to average to make it worthwhile. I think there are definitely HS teams where it could be the right decision. I remember our 3rd game my senior year, we won 6-0 in OT. [/ QUOTE ] So if you get to the 45, do you just punt immediately or maybe take a shot downfield and then punt? You are assuming the value of possession is nothing. You're also ignoring that the field is only 100 yards so, so the 1 sigma bad outcome of a "20 yards per possession" offense is like an 3 yard gaining three and out but the good outcome is kicking a field goal. Possession of the football is vastly more important than field position, this is why teams are stupid for punting so often. Unless Gregaton's coach was using NFL ringers on defense or they were regularly playing in 30 mph winds with driving sleet and the like, his coach was a moron. [/ QUOTE ] Worst logic ever. I suggest that you apply for a coaching job at the University of Nevada; Chris Ault will love your reasoning process.
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