QTs Live

[KitCloudkicker]

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Uhhh.... so many turn cards will be so ugly. Anyway, it's silly to think Jx or better is out if the table action bets and is just called on two streets. This is exactly the kind of spot where a weak hand ends up scooping a big pot on the river after two blanks drop.

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This is so wrong it hurts. OP raised in late position after a bunch of limpers. SB bet out on the flop into 4 people, including the preflop raiser. This represents top pair or better a large portion of the time.

Sure, SB could have middle pair with backdoor draws or an OESD that they are playing strongly, but statistically fewer players bet here with those. It is absolutely not likely that the callers have a J, but that doesn't mean the SB doesn't.

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so if we check the turn, and SB bets a nothing river, we're folding?

[ZOMG_RIGGED!]

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so if we check the turn, and SB bets a nothing river, we're folding?

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Are we assuming that all four players saw the river then?
If it was heads up I'm calling any river, blank ot not. Pots big and by checking the turn you've invited any J, T, or mid-PP to bet, as well as some busted straights. If all four saw the river, and the two in the middle folded, I'm still probably calling.

[KitCloudkicker]

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so if we check the turn, and SB bets a nothing river, we're folding?

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Are we assuming that all four players saw the river then?
If it was heads up I'm calling any river, blank ot not. Pots big and by checking the turn you've invited any J, T, or mid-PP to bet, as well as some busted straights. If all four saw the river, and the two in the middle folded, I'm still probably calling.

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well in that case betting the turn and checking the river is far superior.

[ZOMG_RIGGED!]

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so if we check the turn, and SB bets a nothing river, we're folding?

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Not exactly sure your question proves that because our action depends heavily on the other two players. I see no problem checking the turn and calling the river if everyone else bails.

Because of the Pf and flop raises the pot is big. If the turn checks around the SB may be tempted to bet a lot because you've backed off. Once the other two players fold, I think you basically have to call almost no matter what the river was because you're gettin ghuge pot odds.

[Fnord]

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SB bet out on the flop into 4 people, including the preflop raiser. This represents top pair or better a large portion of the time.

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This isn't a typical player. He doesn't take small bets seriously, nor should we take him very seriously.

[Hyperrrprank]

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Uhhh.... so many turn cards will be so ugly. Anyway, it's silly to think Jx or better is out if the table action bets and is just called on two streets. This is exactly the kind of spot where a weak hand ends up scooping a big pot on the river after two blanks drop.

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This is so wrong it hurts. OP raised in late position after a bunch of limpers. SB bet out on the flop into 4 people, including the preflop raiser. This represents top pair or better a large portion of the time.

Sure, SB could have middle pair with backdoor draws or an OESD that they are playing strongly, but statistically fewer players bet here with those. It is absolutely not likely that the callers have a J, but that doesn't mean the SB doesn't.

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so if we check the turn, and SB bets a nothing river, we're folding?

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My main point was that it was terrible to assume no one is holding a J, when the action of the SB makes that at least a likely holding. Once we do that we're apt to start trying to extract "value" and cost ourselves more bets then necessary. Calling down cheaply is not a huge mistake, but I'd personally fold the river unimproved unless I'd seen the SB bet into a large field and a preflop raise with marginal hands a couple times. Remember, we're not even beating middle pair with a better kicker here.

[ZOMG_RIGGED!]

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but I'd personally fold the river unimproved unless I'd seen the SB bet into a large field and a preflop raise with marginal hands a couple times. Remember, we're not even beating middle pair with a better kicker here.

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Way to weak in my opinion. SB has been proven to show down marginal hands. If you raise the flop and then check the turn your hand now screams, KQ, AQ, AK and that you raised the flop looking to catch some help. If you check the turn, the SB leads the river, and the the two other players fold, calling has to be automatic. To lazy to go back and count preflop action but we have to be getting close to 10:1 on a river call. SB is going to turn over 99-77, T9,T8 more than 10:1. Call but expect to lose

edit: OP was nice wenough to do the math for me :-) Laziness wins again. We're getting 13:1 on a river all. Put the chips in

[TheCount212]

Clearly she's looking for a free showdown, but will likely call you down if you bet. Even if she's gaming you, I'm not sure it's worth betting here. Take the free showdown offered.

[Hyperrrprank]

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but I'd personally fold the river unimproved unless I'd seen the SB bet into a large field and a preflop raise with marginal hands a couple times. Remember, we're not even beating middle pair with a better kicker here.

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Way to weak in my opinion. SB has been proven to show down marginal hands. If you raise the flop and then check the turn your hand now screams, KQ, AQ, AK and that you raised the flop looking to catch some help. If you check the turn, the SB leads the river, and the the two other players fold, calling has to be automatic. To lazy to go back and count preflop action but we have to be getting close to 10:1 on a river call. SB is going to turn over 99-77, T9,T8 more than 10:1. Call but expect to lose
n

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I didn't say I'd always fold here. But we only have half the equation. SB has shown down marginal hands. That's a nod towards calling for sure. But has SB also bet those same marginal hands? Especially OOP, into a large field, with a pfr lurking on the button?

If SB has shown this level of aggression, or seems out of touch enough not to know the difference between betting here and betting a marginal hand in a safer spot, calling the river for one more is a sure thing. If SB is either passive or positionally aware, folding is the best move because you're worse than a 13:1 dog to take the pot.

[bernie]

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Bernie,

Given the read, my guess is that he's showing down any pair and could have any 1 pair hand here. Probably likes to gamble it up on early/cheap streets and takes extra bets on big streets seriously, but tends to just showdown his crap when it has a 1 in 100 shot of winning.



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Except nothing was said about his aggression standards postflop.


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That said, no way we can fold here, so I'm putting in an extra bet somewhere to give me an extra shot at winning the pot and put a little doubt in the heads of my opponents because I'm the table squeezer. Given the flop action, I think the turn is the spot to do it. It won't happen often, but I think we get someone else to fold a hand as strong as Jx often enough to have value.

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I kind of agree. I like the turn bet to get out overcards. Then, if needed, take the free showdown. The hand really isn't strong enough to check this turn through against this many players. HU I might see a check.

I don't see Jx folding here. Not with this crowd. They don't play Jx just to hit top pair and fold.

b