Hand vs Shaniac @ bellagio cup

[J.C. Alvarado]

Figured I'd start posting a few of my hands whenever I get the chance....

A little backround..I have been playing my regular game, loose minraising pre, semi passive post flop, check calling and checkfolding flops, I've maybe reraised post flop 3 or 4 times all tournament, always with a strong hand, generally playing super small ball. I've been playing with shaniac all day one and now most of day 2, and he's been kinda gunning for me it seems because he has position, he's shown down limps with J2s, called my raises with hands like 78o etc...In the past he's also been willing to make loose calls against me for huge pots.

So 115 or so left 100 pay, 800/1600, I have about 85k shane has about 120k.

I limp A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (I rarely limp), shane limps behind, button limps, sb and bb are in.

Flop 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

checks to me, I check, shane bets 3,500. Folds to me I make it 12,500. Shane calls after about 10 seconds.

Turn K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I check he checks.

River A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I check fast he bets 34,000 into roughly 30k.

Given our history, the fact that he knows me fairly well, and the way the hand played out is the move to call or fold?

Also, what do you put him on and why?

[Tyler Durden]

Damn this is a tough one. Whatever he has, it's an excellent river bet.

I don't think he bet the flop w/ a flush draw. He is about 99% sure that you don't have a King when you check the river...what an assertive bet.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think he bet the flop w/ a flush draw. He is about 99% sure that you don't have a King when you check the river

[/ QUOTE ]

that's why I call now (well, that, and you scoop vs. 43s or whatever). it's v close though.

[markysals11]

I think I call here... I'd like to believe he has a 3 in this spot, and put you on a flush draw, and just called the flop looking to get it all on the turn if it bricked. Then when the turn came K he became weary and checked behind, but when river is A and you check again, he knows his 3 is good and is overbetting to see if you will call w/ your Axdd... Just what I think may have been going through Shane's head during this one, but of course I could be way off

[Tyler Durden]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't think he bet the flop w/ a flush draw. He is about 99% sure that you don't have a King when you check the river

[/ QUOTE ]

that's why I call now (well, that, and you scoop vs. 43s or whatever). it's v close though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh boy I didn't even realize that our hand improved on the end. I think it's a call too, if you lose the pot your stack is cut in half but still workable but if you win you can really abuse the money bubble.

[luckychewy]

pretty unlikely he's got the case 3 i think. what do you think he thinks you are c/r'ing flop with? if you think he puts you on mid pairs(which i think would be awful, but i don't know how you play) you should prob call. on one hand you look like you have total air or a three(which is obv pretty unlikely given pf) and he is overbetting the pot which seems weird given you prob have air...but on the other hand he can really only be bluffing with missed diamonds or an elaborate float. all in all feels like a fold to me, but i dunno what kinda history you to have and what he thinks of you, or what you think of him, other than what you wrote in the op. re-reading the op feels like closer to a call, but i still think fold is good.

[ZJ123]

i think its close, but i think the fact that you beat 3xs makes it a call.

[nath]

This spot sucks; Shane's range is so polarized to a flush draw or a king, and he has to feel pretty confident you have a 3 the way the hand played out. Like, if you think he might have a 3 and be trying to push you off a chop, I guess it becomes a call, but [censored], I have no idea. His overbet is v good here.

[shaundeeb]

ZJ if he's betting a 3 that strong what reason is for it to get him off a chop? Or to get something worse to call.

[s33w33d]

He could have [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img][img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or QQ-44 to go with the naked K. He limped so he's unlikely to have an ace. He could very easily have a hand like TT or 88 in this spot too. He could have picked up the K. A is a great river card and his bet is excellent.

You have to call though. If he has a K, tough, and he's a huge genius.