Some thoughts on continuation bet sizing (long)

[LearningCurve]

NH, Panthro!

[SheepSuit]

great post ty [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

now back to work [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[Panthro]

[ QUOTE ]

The thing is, most villains don't fold a draw even if you bet pot. So what exactly is the point?

[/ QUOTE ]

If we ignore stack sizes/implied odds, your opponent would be making a mistake by calling a PSB on the flop with most draws. Even if it's a small mistake, it's still a mistake.


[ QUOTE ]

…so don't we want to put more money in when our equity is better?

[/ QUOTE ]

Absolutely. Unfortunately, if we just concentrated on putting more money in the pot with more equity, and less money in the pot with less equity, we’d ultimately fail at disguising our hand to our opponents. I guess what I’m trying to say is that in our attempts to maximize our winnings and minimize our losses, we suffer from a lack of balance that is exploitable to observant opponents.

I'll try and give my own interpretation using your examples of why methodology #2 has been successful for me…

----

The 7 Q 3 rainbow flop is a board which misses most hands (ie- a dry board), so it's a flop I bluff at with a very very very high frequency. Assuming my opponent isn't some crazy calling station with ridiculous stats, and ignoring those times he plays back at my cbet with air, what hands will he continue with? A set/Qx/88-JJ or maybe even 7x or 56/45 for a gutshot if he's really loose -- which is still a small part of the average villain's range. Because I’m bluffing at this flop so often, a smaller bet gives me better odds, so I can pick up the pot with less risk – I only need a ½ pot sized bet to work ~34% of the time to for it to be +EV.

Secondly, on the Q73r flop, I don’t need to make a larger bet to “price out” strong draws since there aren’t any. Gutshots like 45/56 aren’t getting the proper odds to continue even with a smaller cbet. I just don’t need to bet as much to ‘protect my hand’.

Back to the example…When I have 77 on the Q73r flop, yes, I'd like to put more money in the pot since I have such good equity; BUT, to balance this I'd also need to make that same larger bet when I have air, which is the majority of the time I’m firing on a board of this texture. This means I'd win more when I have a hand and my opponent calls or raises my larger bet, but also I’d lose more when I don't have hand and my opponent calls or raises my larger bet. Now, it's just a matter of figuring out my bluffing/value betting frequency to determine if making a larger bet on the Q73r flop is more/less +EV than making a smaller bet. I don’t feel like turning this into a math lesson, but you see where I’m going with this...

------

OK, now with a somewhat drawy 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] flop, there are a wider range of hands that will continue facing my cbet – all those mentioned above, plus any hand with 2 spades in it. Because this board hits a wider distribution of hands, I bluff this flop less frequently than the Q73r flop (I also check more frequently with made hands for balance, but that’s somewhat irrelevant). A 3/4ths PSB needs to work ~41% of the time for it to be +EV, and while I’m risking slightly more and my bluffs will have a lower success rate, the fact is that I’m bluffing less and value betting more on this type of flop.

So when I’m betting this type of flop using methodology #2, I’ll bet a larger amount…
A) to give drawing hands (X[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Y[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]) incorrect pots odds to call, that a smaller bet would not have (ie – bigger bet, more protection).
B) to ‘charge draws’ a hefty price to continue. I want it to be -EV for someone to chase a flush/str8 against me.
C) because in my experience, I find some opponents less likely to semi-bluff raise facing a larger bet and I don’t want to be put in a tough decision.
D) to better define my hand and give me a better idea of where I stand facing aggression, since more legitimate hands can/will raise me on this flop (this is point is kind of meh, but still worth mentioning).

Once again, back to the 77 example…When I have 77 on a 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] flop, my equity obviously isn’t as good as the Q73r flop, since any spade draw in my opponents range has decent equity against my set; However, with a larger bet, I can extract more value from a wider range of hands while still maintaining balance and effectively disguising my hand to opponent. When he has X[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Y[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], I want my opponent to call. I want him to make a mistake by calling a large bet when he doesn’t have odds to chase. I want to extract the maximum amount of chips possible before the turn/river when his draw becomes very weak/worthless.


Gah, I just made this thing even longer.

[lag0n]

nice post.

I also like to make a bigger bet if OOP and then if in position a smaller bet will often get the job done.

[BGnight]

Thanks for the hard work Panthro. Will read later.

[kidpokeher]

Nice work Panthro!

[cbloom]

Nice followup Panthro, thanks.

[Suaimhnea]

Well done.

[Badgerpoo]

Nice posts!

I tend to make standard c-bets to disguise my value bets from my lbuffs. In position hu it will tend to be 75% pot, oop or multiway I bet more. I also modify my bets based on how much villain calls a cont bet, so for someone that calls loosely, i will bet more but less often.

[TheChad]

Mods, possible recommendation for Poo-Bah? Just a thought.