Ivey vs. Corey Pavin golf bet

[leatherass]

I never said Ivey would succomb to the pressure. Did you read that in my post? Or do you just like to try and stir the pot?

[leatherass]

I agree. Trust me when I tell you guys you really have it all worng. I made my living playing golf for two years and hustles the members at my club since I was twelve years old. I have easily made $100,000 hustling people aside from my tournament winnings. I've playedd every imagineable form of bet you've ever come up with and won money at all of them. I played four 8-10 handicaps and let them use their best score on every hole against my score and won every time. These formats don't help you as much as everyone thinks. I will bet any 10-12 handicap that they can't shoot 10 or more under on a tpc course playing a 3 man scramble with themselves.

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
I will bet any 10-12 handicap that they can't shoot 10 or more under on a tpc course playing a 3 man scramble with themselves.

[/ QUOTE ]

ok i'm not a big golf nut, so let me see if i translate this right:

I will bet any (GUY WHO HAS AN AVERAGE SCORE OF TEN TO TWELVE OVER PAIR) that they can't shoot (TEN OR MORE UNDER PAR) on a tpc course playing (WHERE THEY GET TO HIT EACH SHOT THREE TIMES AND TAKE BEST BALL EACH TIME).

is that right?

did anyone claim that this would be realistic? it seems absurd. that's making up 20 to 22 shots out of 82, and tallying a total score of like, 60-62, right? scores that the best golfers, on their best days, are incredibly proud of? no [censored] way. i don't think that a decent but not great golfer birdies the majority of all holes simply by getting to hit the shots each 3 times.

i obviously could be wrong about any of this, particularly whatever the hell was said in the post quoted.

c

[Spy Dog]

Assuming Ivey is a legit 15, he isn't playing this scramble as a 15 handicapper.

If Joe Blow and Frank Retard are both 15 handicaps, then they could play from the back tees without giving shots. However, if Joe played from the back tees and let Frank move up to the next tee box then Frank is playing an easier course than Joe and his 'effective' handicap would be reduced to a 12 or 13 if he and Joe are to play an even game. If Joe lets Frank move up 3 tee boxes to the ladies tees then Frank gains a pretty large advantage over Joe. It's probably like 7-8 shots if the difference between the back and forward tees is 1600 yards.

Therefore, when Joe lets Frank tee off from the front tees he is 'effectively' lowering his handicap by roughly 7-8 shots. So, Frank's handicap becomes a 7 or 8 playing from the front tees when Joe plays from the tips.

Phil Ivey is Frank in this example. Can a 7 handicapper playing a 2-ball scramble beat Pavin?

Well, a 7-handicapper in this format can expect to shoot between 68-75 the vast majority of time.

Corey Pavin can expect to shoot 65-74 the vast majority of time from the tips.

Certainly, Ivey can beat Pavin with this beat. However, Pavin should be the favorite. I think he wins 70% of the time.

[selurah]

fouraces,

You are an idiot.

[7n7]

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming Ivey is a legit 15

[/ QUOTE ]

But he's not, just clarifying that my OP put out 3 hypotheticals (10, 15, and 20).

Also clarifying that at no time did any poker pro or Ivey himself claim he was.

Just clarifying... [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[chucksim]

Good analysis. The comments I made above about being a 14 not able to break par assumed the same tees. Not moving up to the front. Difference in tees, especially between players, has to be considered.

I think you're right. You still have to take Pavin, but it's a pretty good, solid bet where Phil does have a shot.

[funkymunky]

Don't know how I missed this thread.

Personally, I don't think it will be close. But it's an awesome bet, and it's a shame we won't see any of it. I would love to witness this.

Didn't realize Pavin was a degenerate gambler. 'Course, he ain't really gambling, is he?



[img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[sandycove]

Some additional notes…

1. One’s effective handicap changes relative to handicap index, the course rating and the tee played. A “15” might become a “12” or a “19” on the day for purposes of competition.

2. Handicaps are truer measures of relative skill in match play and are less indicative in medal play. So 18-hole scores are less relevant.

3. The handicap system ALWAYS favours the player with the lower handicap. Poorer players do not get full value for their relatively lesser skills, by a factor of from 5 to 15 percent. And the wider the gap, the worse it gets for the high handicapper.

4. At Phil’s current skill level, once he’s close enough to physically hit greens in regulation, distance doesn’t matter much anymore. Consistent scoring ability is the key (not shot-making) and that’s ultimately where Pavin’s edge lies, along with his experience.

[stinkypete]

[ QUOTE ]

4. At Phil’s current skill level, once he’s close enough to physically hit greens in regulation, distance doesn’t matter much anymore.

[/ QUOTE ]

This simply isn't true. He's playing a course that might be about 50 yards shorter per hole than he's used to.

Basically it's the difference between approaching from 120 yards or 170 yards.

Given 2 shots, a 15 handicap be within a birdieable distance on the 120 yard approach often. from 170 yards, he can't hope for anything better than par the majority of the time. given how easy this course is, he'll rarely be approaching from more than 120 yards (the par fives being the exception, where he'll often be approaching the gren on his second shot)

and when he has two putts from each spot, he'll be making those 5-20 foot birdies a lot more often.