AQ on a monotone flop, flop decision?

Hydrant · #1 10-14-2007, 08:32 PM

the villan is 29/8.2/2.4 after cca 250 hands

Cryptologic 2.00/4.00 Hold'em (10 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
4 folds, Hero raises, Button 3-bets, 2 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets,
Hero ?

Bob T. · #2 10-14-2007, 08:53 PM

I might checkraise. I like your hand, and you could very well be a favorite, or even possibly ahead anyway.

Hydrant · #3 10-14-2007, 09:54 PM

If I c/r and get called and non heart falls, do I bet again?

One Outer · #4 10-15-2007, 12:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If I c/r and get called and non heart falls, do I bet again?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.

I like a flop lead. If I'm reading those stats correctly wouldn't villain check behind a flop like this more than rarely? I want to make sure money is going in. I think it also gives you a better idea of where you're at. I guess the only disadvantage is you give him the lead if he raises.

KitCloudkicker · #5 10-15-2007, 12:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think it also gives you a better idea of where you're at.

[/ QUOTE ]

ugh.

raising is ok. but "seeing where you're at" is totally irrelevant in this situation. you have the nut flush draw and you are going to see the river regardless. if you raise this its for value, not for information.

here are the problems with trying to obtain "information" in this manner.

1) you assume that if villain 3 bets, he has a high pair. this is false. he could easily play a hand like AxJh this way.

2) In addition, many villains will not 3 bet a hand like AA/KK on a board like this, preferring to wait to see a safe turn.

any raise whose sole purpose to "see where you're at" is a mistake in limit. for almost any hand you can think of, I can give excellent counterarguments for ever raising purely for information. if you get information from a raise, it is good, but that shouldnt be your primary purpose for choosing that course of action.

One Outer · #6 10-15-2007, 01:21 AM

Thanks. I feel really dumb now.

Lethe · #7 10-15-2007, 01:30 AM

I like a c/r. I don't think villain is checking through this flop very often. I think a c/r allows us to both get more money in the pot (value), as well as take the lead in the hand making it much more likely that our opponent will make a mistake.

So yeah, c/r the flop and lead the turn.

James. · #8 10-15-2007, 09:24 AM

8%PFR is pretty tight.

against the top 8% of hands on that board we've got to be close to a 60/40 fave so i'm jamming, esp. given his PT stats. i like either c/r or bet/3bet depending on how he plays overcard hands.

SNOWBALL · #9 10-15-2007, 09:37 AM

Call flop. If turn is a heart, you checkraise. If it is an ace or a queen you checkcall, and bet/fold a nonheart river.

If turn blanks. You check/call, and check/fold river UI.
If turn blanks and you hit a heart, you lead and hope to 3 bet. If turn blanks, and you pair up on river, you bet/fold.

I think I've been succifiently comprehensive here. Basically, you aren't gonna win UI, and your equity is a bit below average, and being OOP sucks. Even if you were 51% here vs him (maybe u r), then you would still CC flop, because you don't want to be in a position where you lead turn, and he pops you.

Grease · #10 10-15-2007, 09:43 AM

You wouldn't make a play for this pot on any street?

If he has AK-AJ no heart, he'll be hard pressed to call our flop C/R then another bet on the turn when it blanks off again no heart.

Checking and calling two streets when we miss costs us 1.5 bets and wins UI approximately never, C/Ring then betting costs us ~2.2 (he might raise the turn or 3-bet the flop sometimes and we have to call) and wins the whole pot a reasonable percentage of the time, no?

Could you explain why you want to C/C UI? Maybe I'm missing something.