AJ turn decision Crypto 2-4

Hydrant · #1 08-13-2007, 08:05 PM

SB is 71/22/1.22 after only 50 hands
UTG is 15/8.4/1.72 after 700 hands

Cryptologic 2.00/4.00 Hold'em (10 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 6 folds, Hero raises, SB calls, 1 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: (7.00 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG bets, Hero calls, SB raises, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, UTG raises, Hero ?

GLKST526 · #2 08-13-2007, 08:13 PM

I'd fold. I'm guessing at least one of these players just made two pair on the turn, and both players have shown aggression during the first two streets. If you call, it leaves the door open for SB to 3 bet if they are so inclined, and it may become extremely expensive to see if your ace is good.

Xhad · #3 08-14-2007, 05:58 AM

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I'd fold. I'm guessing at least one of these players just made two pair on the turn, and both players have shown aggression during the first two streets. If you call, it leaves the door open for SB to 3 bet if they are so inclined, and it may become extremely expensive to see if your ace is good.

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I'm not afraid of SB's range as he looks like a total nutjob. Unfortunately, UTG looks ridiculously tight and SB's going to make it way too expensive to show down against UTG. Fold, watch SB 3bet a hand worse than yours and lose to AK.

HoneyBadger · #4 08-14-2007, 06:02 AM

Raise flop? Or is that spew? I don't know.

LV_Nathan · #5 08-14-2007, 06:12 AM

The more I think about raising the flop, the more I like it. We have a marginal hand--the top end of a gut shot and two overs. In position, we want to get it heads up with UTG and take a free card if we want. Especially if it is possible that UTG is betting just an open ender, maybe with a pair. (I would probably bet out with that hand here too.)

If SB decides to check-3 bet, then we have a much better idea where we are (3 outs to the straight, probable chop), and we can confidently call the flop and fold on an unimproved turn.

If UTG reraises, we are in the same spot. A flop raise could save us some serious coin when we are behind, and simplifies the decision-making when the big bets come out.

Xhad · #6 08-14-2007, 06:13 AM

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Raise flop? Or is that spew? I don't know.

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vs. "15/8.4/1.72 after 700 hands"? I'd sooner fold.

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If SB decides to check-3 bet, then we have a much better idea where we are (3 outs to the straight, probable chop), and we can confidently call the flop and fold on an unimproved turn.

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lol, check/3bet by this SB means "I have at least a gutshot"

LV_Nathan · #7 08-14-2007, 06:34 AM

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lol, check/3bet by this SB means "I have at least a gutshot"

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I shamefully withdraw my remarks, Mr. Chairman, and yield back the balance of my time.

HoneyBadger · #8 08-14-2007, 07:18 AM

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Raise flop? Or is that spew? I don't know.

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vs. "15/8.4/1.72 after 700 hands"? I'd sooner fold.

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We have a gutter and two overs, so it's a clear call getting 8:1... isn't a raise better? We can face the nutcase with two cold. The other guy seems passive (with his vpip/pfr 1.72 really isn't that much), we might get a free river card which would be very nice. We may protect an ace or jack out. (although the jack is unlikely)

Xhad · #9 08-14-2007, 07:34 AM

At least one of our overs is not good, and the flush draw taints us somewhat so it's really marginal at best (8:1 = 5 outs and we're not always getting 8:1 as demonstrated in the OP). I don't see what facing the nutcase with two cold accomplishes really as we're drawing and I doubt he folds many hands that relate to this board at all. Finally while UTG is likely to be scared of our raise, he also looks passive enough that his handrane is skewed more towards hands that can 3bet than a normal person's range would be.

HoneyBadger · #10 08-14-2007, 10:03 AM

Yeah, I guess you're right.