NL100: overpair with with a possible big draw

[aocards]

Thoughts on the check on the flop and the best play from here on. The call from the button could be scary but from what i've seen he really does not play very well and could call with a wide rang of hands.

Cuttoff 23/12 (77 hands) Button 43/16 (137 hands)


Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP2 ($87)
MP3 ($196.30)
CO ($96)
Button ($148.65)
SB ($48)
BB ($49)
UTG ($39.70)
Hero ($98.50)
MP1 ($109.55)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 7, 7.
1 fold</font>, Hero calls $1, 1 fold</font>, MP2 calls $1, 1 fold</font>, CO raises to $5</font>, Button calls $5, 2 folds</font>, Hero calls $4, MP2 folds.

Flop: ($17.50) 3, 6, 5 [color=#0000FF](3 players)</font>
Hero checks, CO bets $12</font>, Button calls $12,

Hero

[maltaille]

So what do you put them on? Unlikely anyone already has a flush, so let's say 10%. Think someone has a 4? Possibly, but I wouldn't think likely, let's say another 10%. That leaves overpairs - i think there's 50% likely to be at least one here - and high diamonds, say another 75%.

So, if that's the case, you aren't likely to be ahead now, you are even less likely to be ahead if random overcards fall, you won't be ahead if a diamond falls, and in fact you really only have the 4's as outs, with redraws possible against you if it's not the 4d.

You're likely to get good action from a higher diamond if the 4d drops, and you're likely to get some, if not a lot, of action from an overpair if any other 4 drops, so you have some implied odds, but they're not really that good. If you assume you're going to get action if you hit, you have to assume you have little bluff equity as well.

So, you're getting roughly 2.5 to 1, you need roughly 9 to 1, perhaps 4 to 1 or 5 to 1 after implied odds. Dump it and move on.

[diebitter]

Please put the level of play in the subject line when you post hands.

[crunny]

Shove?

I think we have a lot of FE against over cards with a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and mid over pairs without a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Sucks when they call with something like 99 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] but we still have 6 outs.

[mce86]

In this spot, im going to see what develops on the river. I think you are ahead, but not out of the woods. You could raise right now and possibly take it down, but if they call you still have to play OOP on the turn. I'd lead a non-threatening turn card and see how CO reacts (air here alot)
I want the button to call because seems like he'll call with many hands.

[MINETZ]

this draw is not very good at all and we barely have an overpair. if one of these guys have an overpair and flush draw theres not a chance there folding and were pretty dead.

id def check fold this flop.