50NL - River two pair and get donked into

bazooka87 · #1 10-27-2007, 11:38 AM

Ok, pretty sick spot. Villain running at 34/17/1 over about 200 hands. I'd been raising a ton from the button into his bb and his fold bb to steal was 60, and I'd taken it down almost everytime with a cbet so I think his flop donk was an attempt to combat this, and naturally I raised it as all donkbets can be folded if raised (I know this isn't true, but so often it works). Turn bet is very very marginal I admit, but ehh not really concerned about that.
What am I to do?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (3 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($149.10)
BB ($43.25)
Hero ($72.80)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Hero raises to $2, SB calls $1.75, 1 fold.

Flop: ($4.50) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $2.5, Hero raises to $7, SB calls $4.50.

Turn: ($18.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $11, SB calls $11.

River: ($40.50) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $27

orlov · #2 10-27-2007, 12:05 PM

Seeing that his river af is only 1 and big riverbets usually mean big hands, Id fold it.

Only thing u really beat is a busted flushdraw(which admittedly thus make sense when looking at his line), ofc if he had enough of you stealing he might be going crazy with one pair.

TilTandWiN · #3 10-27-2007, 12:13 PM

I think I would check the turn after your donk bet raise. Then if he bets (a decent size) again, fold the river. If he checks bet for value.

The river situation is really marginal - It is either a busted FD or a set IMO. I know logic says that he would have 3bet you on the flop, or raised you on the turn with a set - but alot of passive villans just call all the time even with monsters. Smells of a busted flush draw actually (as passive villan may check river with set if he is going to play the turn like that). His RAF is too small to make a call profitable, I think I fold (but also dont bet the turn).

Interesting hand. Could you PM results please?

yegon · #4 10-27-2007, 02:51 PM

I think he might show a stubborn 88 that got lucky here some of the time although with you holding an 8 this is unlikely

AcTc+ most likely

I do not see any other set or a strong hand that would just call on the turn with 2FDs and a SD out and both players being deep

the 8 on the river only helps a gutshot

the more I think about it the more this looks like a bluff to me

I'd call and post to BBV immediately if he shows 88 [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Kasane · #5 10-27-2007, 02:53 PM

If he checks turn, he'll have to call just about any bet on the river no matter what falls (almost).

edit: oh, and call the river as played. Villain's line makes no sense whatsoever, and your hand strength/type is going to be a complete surprise to him. This is a bluff/worse the requisite %.

Kasane · #6 10-27-2007, 02:59 PM

Just realized this line makes perfect sense for 67, in clubs or not. Damn. Didn't see the dg on my first pass.

doppelganger · #7 10-27-2007, 03:07 PM

If this is the first time you've double barreled this guy I think you can make a thin call and make a note on what he does this with. As others said, a set would usually raise the turn w/ the flush draw present, so the only hand that really got there on the river that beats you is QJ, maybe suited in clubs. His line really doesn't make sense to me so I'll call out of curiosity.

doppelganger · #8 10-27-2007, 03:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Just realized this line makes perfect sense for 67, in clubs or not. Damn. Didn't see the dg on my first pass.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a very good point. I missed it too, which is why dg's are so powerful. Hmm...tough one. He might also just view the 8 as a scare card which completes 2 straight draws and be trying to push us off our hand. I still think it's a thin call if it's the first time we've gotten to the river w/ this guy.

wingchunflush · #9 10-27-2007, 03:12 PM

I am checking the turn, as played fold the river.

doppelganger · #10 10-27-2007, 03:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I am checking the turn, as played fold the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Turn card improves us to TP in a blind war against a guy we have history with who showed no strength on the flop. Explain please.

Edit: Scratch that I had forgotten he donk/called the flop. I'd still like to hvae some discussion of the merits of a check on the turn. Is pot control your main concern here or do you feel we're behind at this point?