Basic line move question

[freewheeler]

So how's it been working out for you? Any findings you'd like to share? Value hunting is pretty much all I do, too. I don't try to handicap much myself (I suck at it) I just look for what appears to be mispriced lines. I look more for comparisons from one shop to another, though, rather than movements.

[MCS]

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So how's it been working out for you? Any findings you'd like to share?

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I'm ahead, but it's still short term. Handicapping-wise, I like to look at team runs scored/allowed and K/BB ratio to find teams and pitchers that might be overvalued or undervalued. If I find a line I like, I think really hard about why the book might have a different number than I do, and if I can't figure out any explanation, I usually don't bet it. It's somewhat of a feel thing for now. I bet small. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Value-hunting wise, I try to look at Pinnacle's opening lines, and then check later for games which move "past" the opening point, which usually means eight cents different. I am more inclined to do this when it is a gradual move on gameday, since I figure that's most likely public/square money.

As an example of a value-hunting bet, today's Twins-White Sox game opened up Min -120, CWS +112. I examined Santana's and Contreras' numbers, looked at each team's expected winning percentage, and decided that the line seemed pretty reasonable. Then earlier today, I saw that Minnesota was down to -111. I figure if Pinnacle's offer of CWS +112 was +EV for them, then Min -111 must be +EV as well. I bet Minnesota.

For what it's worth, I also bet Toronto at a good number, and I looked at Colorado as well but declined. I took Detroit and Cincinnati today based on handicapping reasons (Detroit is a better team with a better starter at -104, and Cincinnati is a better team with a very good starter at +127)