Live Flop Play: How Many Bets?

[James.]

10/20 live

everyone is horrible. they also think i'm a crazy LAG. villain is tight/semi-passive. he's sort of pissed at me because i've been raising his blind alot(not stealing, just good starting hands).

villain raises in EP, 2 coldcallers, i call on the button with J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], sb calls, bb calls.

Flop(12sb): T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

villain leads, 2 calls, i raise, sb and bb drop, villain 3bets, 2 folds, i 4bet, villain 5 bets...it's HU and there's no cap. how many do we go here?

[CrMenace]

You'll hit your flush or straight 54% of the time by the river, so presumably you'd be willing to go all-in. There's some chance he has a bigger FD or has a set and hits a boat; There's also some (increasingly unlikely) chance that you spike a J and bet his T. All of these possilibities aside, it looks like you have a neutral to marginally +EV situation. I'd probably stop once you are heads up.

[James.]

btw, if it matters i have villain covered. he has around 400.00 left.

[Scarmiglio]

We may hit our flush or straight 54% of the time, but we're not 54% to win if villain flopped a set with pocket tens or pocket eights. Assuming villain only 5-bets the flop with one of these hands (most likely pocket tens as we look like we're representing a set right now and villain raised preflop), we're only 40% to win so we should call and hit an offsuit seven on the turn and then go to town.

[88please]

Really looks like villian (tight, raised in early position and has five bet a drawy board) has an overpair, or maybe a set. We're basically a wash against that range TT+,88. If villian has a bigger flush draw we're dominated AKc, AQc, KQc, but it seems unlikely that the semi passive guy would go to war with one of those holdings. I'd say throw in another raise if you think there is any chance he'll call and check the turn (is AT in his range here?), otherwise just call the fifth bet.

[somapopper]

I'd go for the 6th bet because of your image here.

I don't think the responses have given that enough consideration.

[CrMenace]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd go for the 6th bet because of your image here.

I don't think the responses have given that enough consideration.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry what's changed between 4th and 6th bet? All the others folded after villains 3rd bet, so why go to 6th if not all the way?

[mntndrew]

Without a third player in the pot, I don't understand why we'd keep pumping it here. Sure we're ahead of a good portion of his range, but I'm not sure it's by enough to make it worth the variance. In addition to trailing TT, you're also behind QQ, even more so when he holds a club.

I'd also tend to value our read on the villain as passive more than saying that they're coming after our LAGgy play. What would you add to his range besides AA-TT, 88 and A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] because of our read on their perception of us? AT?

[JJH3984]

if this villian is the type of player i think he is, you should just call the fifth bet cuz he has a set and you aren't a favorate. It doesn't matter what your image is, he doesn't five bet without TT or 88 here.

[Allday Everyday]

I probably call the 5-bet. If I knew he wouldn't 7-bet, I would 6-bet.

I love the idea of jamming the pot (but not all-in) with a huge draw HU in position on the flop any time we have around or even slightly less than a 50% chance to win (or more obv.). It would increase variance but I think it is generally +EV as we would gain turn and river advantages. We gain deception, particularly those times we turn our hand and can continue jamming - it increases our implied odds. Jamming the pot will also gain us the a free card on the turn those times we miss the draw, and get checked to. But these would only be advantages if we have chips left at the turn and river (didn't reraise to the felt at the flop). In addition, I think some people would see jamming flop as a good image play that will get us better action in future hands.

However, when villain takes this to 5 or 7 bets at the flop, I think it becomes pretty clear that we usually have less than a 50% chance to win. Even though we have an image of a LAG, villain is generally semi-passive and a set in his hand looks very likely. He will also very occasionally have a higher FD.