King of the Hill

[CrushinFelt]

I know that there have been some scattered posts from people abuot their current situations in their KOTH pools. We might as well make one thread for it.

My situation is as follows:

$10 entry fee. 100 entries (probably only about 30 people but most have multiple entries).

I only used 2 entries. So my buy-in was $20 and the pool is <u>winner-take-all for $1,000</u>. There are 6 entries remaining (including myself). Therefore I have an unadjusted EV of about $167.

The only real rule is that you may not take a team more than twice for any single entry.

My picks thus far:

Pittsburgh*
Chicago
New England
Dallas
Arizona
Jacksonville
Kansas City
Indianapolis
Washington
Pittsburgh*

So I have taken Pittsburgh twice but that's it.

I'm not looking for advice on who to pick. Barring any unforseen injuries I already know who I'm going to take for the next three weeks.

However, one other entry that is left is willing to sell me his spot for $200 who was initially in for $70.

Should I take it? His picks thus far are as follows:

Seattle
Denver
Pittsburgh*
Dallas*
Dallas*
Green Bay
New England
NY Giants
New Orleans
Pittsburgh*

NOTE: His entry and my entry are the only 2 of the 6 remaining who have not taken New England twice yet although we have both taken Pittsburgh twice.

Thanks in advance for any thoughts you all have on this! I thought it was a fairly interesting spot.

[NajdorfDefense]

200 &gt; 167 what am I missing?

[Post-Oak]

[ QUOTE ]
200 &gt; 167 what am I missing?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, the EV for any given player actually depends on what picks they have left.

For example, if someone somehow still had 2 Patriots, Colts, Cowboys and Steelers picks left, they would have a better than average chance of winning the whole thing.

In this case, you also have to consider that if he has two entries left, he can use them to avoid getting knocked out with one big upset. He can use his second entry to stagger his NE picks in 2 different weeks.

I haven't done any real analysis, but I would buy the second entry. The guy has two Colts picks left, which is big, and you will be able to stagger the NE picks.

[NajdorfDefense]

didn't see the 2 Colts pix still available. Sure, go for it.

[CrushinFelt]

That's why I said unadjusted (without accounting for what teams remained for each player and my skill level above the other players).

Also, being that it is winner take changes things as well I think.

I may go ahead and do it.

[CrushinFelt]

Also, what would you guys do with two picks this week?

I would want to do some combination of GB, NE, or Indy.

Any suggestions with just my one pick (GB or Indy)? I think I want to save a NE pick for week 13.

[Jazzy3113]

Why not save the powerhouses and use a Philly pic.

If your uncomfortable with the eagles at home vs miami, go with GB @ home.