Can this ever be a bad swing? 107k hands...

soon2bepro · #1 03-30-2007, 07:15 AM

I've been a winning player NL sh cash for 63k hands, making 3.35 big bets/100 plus rakeback, in various stakes, though mostly NL 100. Before that I was a winning player in limit sh cash, I didn't make more than 1bb/100 plus rakeback over 100k hands, but my skill level was much worse back then as I was just starting.

From then I've started playing in a friends account, and I've only lost and lost, though I know my game has been getting better. In this account I'm now at 107k hands, and I'm -1.71 bb/100. I didn't significantly go up in stakes, even in NL 100 I'm losing a lot (4.11bb/100 over 31k hands)

For quite a while I thought to myself, hey it's just a bad swing, but now I'm starting to doubt it. I know my game has flaws. I often do other stuff while at the tables, sometimes this costs me a pot here and there. Though I've always had that, even more than now also, so it's not like it's new. I can't identify any major flaw or leak that I didn't have before. So maybe the past 63k hands were an upswing, and now I'm seeing that I really suck?

I don't know, many of my friends are high stakes winning players, and though I know my level is beneath them, I more or less break even if I'm facing them in either heads up or in a sh game.

For some reference, my current numbers are 25.53/18.23/2.76. In the past 63k hands they were 29.22/18.26/4.12 (I was calling PF raises with debatable odds, now I tend to fold or rr more often. I was also much more aggressive with marginal hands post flop). If you want more stats just ask.

So, I'm looking for you to tell me if this can be just bad luck, or if I there's no chance I'm a winning player. Or someone tell me to what extent can I adjudicate this to variance and not to better/worse play by me.

spooky shadows · #2 03-30-2007, 07:17 AM

omg wtf move up ldo!!!!!!

sosorry · #3 03-30-2007, 07:53 AM

this new account must be doomswitched!!!

seriously though, just try tightening up, stats aren't everything. While your stats are what I see people saying is the 'winning players' range, they mean don't mean [censored] if you are leaking away chips by chasing too many draws. I notice you have a big aggro factor, maybe you are trying to push people around a little too much?

soon2bepro · #4 03-30-2007, 08:19 AM

I don't know. My cbet % is around 60%, and I don't often continue bluffing after that. Sometimes I'll make situational bluffs, especially against super agressive players, but it doesn't seem like that's a major leak. In fact all the opposite, I seem to make a lot of $ off some players who just keep trying to take every pot. I don't know. I see myself outplaying the field big time, but the numbers just aren't showing this. Almost every session I have some bad beats, and rarely if ever do I seem to have any substantial good beats. But that can't be the whole thing after 107k hands, can it?

excession · #5 03-30-2007, 08:20 AM

No - losing at $100 NL and lower over 100k hands is not just a downturn.

29.22/18.26/4.12

These are typical 'CR Donk' stats. Great if you are Green Plastic who is a great post-flop players and playing at stakes where folks will lay down. In my experience players with PFR over 15% are big losers in $100 6 max - check your 100k database and you will probably see the sweet spot for PFR is in the 10-15% range. Also you should check your positional stats in PT - they are critical.

If you are one of those guys who always open raises even UTG maybe you could try limping a bit. You need a great edge post-flop to get away with continually escalating a pot OOP with non-premium hands esp in an arena like $100 6 max where respect at the table is tough to come by.

If you are playign full ring then the same comments are even more true.

I think it's clear from your stats that you don't currently have that edge.

Finally the obvious point is that games on US sites have toughened up a lot post-Frist. Whether this toughening up at $100 is worth 5+PTBB I don't know - but it easily could be. If that's the case there is no conundrum - you are playing as well or even a little better than before, it's just that the opposition is a lot tougher and you can't now beat the rake.

CalledDownLight · #6 03-30-2007, 08:31 AM

games are tougher now

Knet · #7 03-30-2007, 08:43 AM

[ QUOTE ]
In my experience players with PFR over 15% are big losers in $100 6 max

[/ QUOTE ]

No. Unless their VPIP is >30

excession · #8 03-30-2007, 09:04 AM

I did look at this in my PT DB for 6 max - the 25/10's won much more than the 25/20's - but I will check again..

johnnyrocket · #9 03-30-2007, 09:26 AM

there are some better players now but that long a sample is a lot to be losing at this low level, def reevaluate ur play and post some hands

hasugopher · #10 03-30-2007, 09:46 AM

After 100k+ hands of -2ptbb/100 poker it should be fairly obvious that it's in no way a downswing. Games are tougher these days.

Sure, your stats are pretty, who cares though? They only paint a small part of the picture. The fact that you are a losing player but you are playing fairly ideally preflop shows that you, that in all likelihood (as in, pretty much guaranteed), you have glaring leaks and you're passing up major edges post-flop. What those are, I don't know because I've never played with you. My guess is that you're way too nitty and super easy to read.