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#32
01-09-2007, 03:45 PM
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Re: Firing the Second Barrel (long)
[ QUOTE ]
what is the game-theory correct amount to river bluff? Is is the amount that makes you think I'm enough of a LAG that you'll give me free river cards and pay off my value bets every time? [/ QUOTE ] Wookie is referring to a couple of chapters in _Theory of Poker_. You should really read it, but a short illustration: You are HU on the river with a hand that can only beat a bluff (like A-high). Your opponent bets. The pot lays 4:1. You should call if your opponent is bluffing more than 1/5 times; otherwise, you should fold. If your opponent bluffs exactly 1/5 times, then you can never make the optimal play on the river -- no mater what you do, you lose according to the Fundamental Theorem of Poker. The real situation is somewhat more complicated, but i think i got the basics correct. 
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#33
01-09-2007, 03:46 PM
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Re: Firing the Second Barrel (long)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] what is the game-theory correct amount to river bluff? Is is the amount that makes you think I'm enough of a LAG that you'll give me free river cards and pay off my value bets every time? [/ QUOTE ] Wookie is referring to a couple of chapters in _Theory of Poker_. You should really read it, but a short illustration: You are HU on the river with a hand that can only beat a bluff (like A-high). Your opponent bets. The pot lays 4:1. You should call if your opponent is bluffing more than 1/5 times; otherwise, you should fold. If your opponent bluffs exactly 1/5 times, then you can never make the optimal play on the river -- no mater what you do, you lose according to the Fundamental Theorem of Poker. The real situation is somewhat more complicated, but i think i got the basics correct. [/ QUOTE ] I have read TOP. I'm asking in this particular case. I'm just trying to generate discussion. In your case you don't lose anything, you break even. If you have an opponent who thinks you are a LAG and will check raise him on the turn often, he might try to induce a bet from you on the river. If you know what he is up to, your correct bluffing frequency is 0. The problem is, he should catch on to this so you have to bluff just enough to keep him doing this.
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#34
11-28-2007, 02:04 AM
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Re: Firing the Second Barrel (long)
bump to keep this alive for the micro wiki and because it is a good thread for saving when the forum moves.
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#36
11-28-2007, 02:58 PM
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Re: Firing the Second Barrel (long)
[ QUOTE ]
- be more inclined to fire the second barrel when the board is dry. - if you pick up a redraw on the turn, be less inclided to fire the second barrel, even on a drawey board because you have to call a c/r [/ QUOTE ] I think your blending a couple concepts together and you may have got your car turned the wrong way. Assuming you yourself don't have a draw to a flush/straight - you should be betting the turn on the drawey board, and then checking behind UI on the river. On a dry board we assume they may have something, since well their obviously not drawing to a str8 or flush. Again this is going to be somewhat player dependent and board texture dependent. Now in the case where you have the draw to the flush as well as overs, you would/could be more inclined to check or check-behind because you don't want to be two bets to hit your draw on the times your opponent does have a hand. Again I'll add the caveat that this is somewhat board/player dependent. Tyler had a thread (that got hijacked) that could have been labeled "Checking with Outs" that starts to hit on that subject. Sarge[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
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