BORGATA Main Event Hand

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]

Some read analysis would be helpful here - but I'll make some normalizing assumtions: 4K has been the standard table opener - nothing signaled by your opening raise; you haven't been particularly aggro/tight so your raise is being respected but doesn't necessarily imply monster given your position; likewise villian hasn't been overly aggro/tight. Given those assumptions:

14K reraise strikes me as discouraging action so prob not AA or KK - most likely range: AQ+, 99-QQ. While he has less than an avg stack his M is still fine - he shouldn't be feeling desparate.

He's only got 19K behind so he's committed unless the flop looks horrible to him and you lead out - so I think you can add his 19k into your implied odds if you hit your hand.

I call the 10k and plan to: check/fold a complete whiff, check/call his push if an A or K fall, lead out if I hit a a semi-bluff flop. If I don't put him on AA/KK then I'm getting the right price to hit my hand and the 10k call doesn't dramatically alter my chip position (the check/fold on a whiff sounds weak/tight but I don't think it is given the stack sizes). I don't like pushing here - you have no fold equity and are -EV to his range (at least where I put him). I won't argue too strongly that a fold is wrong - I think it's acceptable here.

How'd you make out in the tourney?

HC

[/ QUOTE ]

If you call, you are only getting action if you are beaten.

You will miss 2/3 of the time you call, so calling off 25% of your stack to simply check/fold 2/3 of the time, and not get paid the other 1/3 is thoroughly bleh.

A read here is helpfull (i.e. his frequency of raising a PFR in position)

If he was uber-tight I may fold, if he any indication that he may have less than a premium hand I push.

I push because:

a) he may fold
b) I may have him dominated
c) I may split and have a freeroll to my flush
d) I get paid off by PP< AA/KK when an A or K flops
e) I'm short-but not broke if I lose
f) Putting in the last raise makes this game easier to play

Regards,
Woodguy

[Maulik]

Woodguy gives the best line for playing this hand OOP.

[jtomon]

this is where my theoretical and actual play vary. I push in if I'm you. Theoretically, you are a coin flip at best...worst you are well behind. So say 70% coin flip, 20% facing AA, KK, 10% nonsense, Its tough...he's committed and representing, I guess I fold and go to dinner pissed off.

[hockey coach]

Since pushing looks like the worst option to me - I figured call/folding a whiff would get flamed ;-) - let me test my thought process against some of Woods ideas and others I saw and find the leak:

a) if I push he can't fold - imagine the 2+2 post from the villian's perspective: I'm playing the Borgata ME w/ XX, MP raises to 4k, I reraise to 14K w/ 19K behind, he pushes, 19k to me w/ like 50K in the pot - do I fold here?? I figure that gets flamed worse than my call/fold whiff play.

b) given the range I think he has I think my dominating him is as likely as him dominating me (I don't think he has AJ but he might, I don't think he has KK but he might) and so I'm pretty much looking at the light end of a flip the overwhelming majority of the time

e) if I push (and he can't fold) it's 29k into a pot w/ about 10k of dead money so I'm getting better than I need to take the light end of the flip but not much better and I'm doing it w/ more than 50% of my remaining stack - why would I want to flip for that much in a marginal EV spot at this stage of the tourney?

f) true enough - but since I already know what I'm doing post flop I don't think I run a risk of getting outplayed or of outhinking myself here

q) (I made up this letter) - I'm sure he's pot committed unless the flop comes absolutely horrible and even then he'll probably get it in - I'm getting all his chips when I hit and only lose 10K when I don't - much better than the 2-1 I need on the flop; when I whiff I still have an average stack - happy to take a relatively cheap shot at stacking him 1/3 of the time than an expensive shot that stacks him 45% of the time

Thanks for the thoughts.

HC

[freehat]

I think we need more information like how you and you are opponent are playing. If hes a rock then fold if he isnt then push.

[The Bear]

Agreed, but I'll say that calling and check-folding unimproved is TERRIBLE.

[woodguy]

a) if I push he can't fold - imagine the 2+2 post from the villian's perspective: I'm playing the Borgata ME w/ XX, MP raises to 4k, I reraise to 14K w/ 19K behind, he pushes, 19k to me w/ like 50K in the pot - do I fold here?? I figure that gets flamed worse than my call/fold whiff play. true, but you never know, faced with putting their TOURNEY LIFE on the line, people do dumb things

b) given the range I think he has I think my dominating him is as likely as him dominating me (I don't think he has AJ but he might, I don't think he has KK but he might) and so I'm pretty much looking at the light end of a flip the overwhelming majority of the timebeing suited makes it closer to 50/50

e) if I push (and he can't fold) it's 29k into a pot w/ about 10k of dead money so I'm getting better than I need to take the light end of the flip but not much better and I'm doing it w/ more than 50% of my remaining stack - why would I want to flip for that much in a marginal EV spot at this stage of the tourney? the future chips you gain with a bigger stack have to be taken into consideration. Most people when looking at this only weigh broke vs. the chips they gain, but the chips you gain will have an effect of making future chips easier to get. Also, when playing a hand, it is important to play the hand correctly. Making a sub-optimal play because you do not want to risk chips to make the proper play is a big leak. You end up looking weak at the talbe and getting run over, as well as draining your stack looking for the mythical "better spot"

f) true enough - but since I already know what I'm doing post flop I don't think I run a risk of getting outplayed or of outhinking myself here a K flop, he folds his QQ, he's playing correctly and you left $$ on the table.......flop comes Q high, you check he puses his TT, which he would have folded to a flop bet......serioiusly there will be enough $$$ in the middle to make pushing your AK n the flop into any flop correct, why give him the chance to also play correct by folding on the flop.

q) (I made up this letter) - I'm sure he's pot committed unless the flop comes absolutely horrible and even then he'll probably get it in - I'm getting all his chips when I hit and only lose 10K when I don't - much better than the 2-1 I need on the flop; when I whiff I still have an average stack - happy to take a relatively cheap shot at stacking him 1/3 of the time than an expensive shot that stacks him 45% of the time assuming you get all his chips when you hit is wrong, and you will have the odds to call his bet with AK given the range.....

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]
Theoretically, you are a coin flip at best...worst you are well behind. So say 70% coin flip, 20% facing AA, KK, 10% nonsense, Its tough...he's committed and representing, I guess I fold and go to dinner pissed off.

[/ QUOTE ]

From various tourney reports, blogs etc (I have zero big buy-in experience), it seems that the last hand before the end of the day is a popular time to make a move, based on the whole 'I just want to get the F- out of here with my stack' thinking by opponents.

The only way I lay this down is if:
-my image is squeeky clean (but not weak tight)
-his image is straightforward
-Any tells or feel I have makes me think he is strong.

33x is deeper than you would like with AK, but as long as you can't rule out AK & JJ, its a profitable push.

Think about it. Against JJ+, AK you are 42%, Even if you knew he would call (and his range), it is 29K to win 68.5K. which makes this neutral CEV-wise. I would assume there is some chance he has AQ or a smaller pair (or a stone bluff).

Tough call, no doubt, but I think for players of most skill levels, this is one you absolutely have to make to maximize the $$ you can win.

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]
given the range I think he has I think my dominating him is as likely as him dominating me (I don't think he has AJ but he might, I don't think he has KK but he might) and so I'm pretty much looking at the light end of a flip the overwhelming majority of the time


[/ QUOTE ]

Even if his range is AA-QQ, you wont be dominated a majority of the time. There are 3 combos of AA and KK, and 6 of QQ. It is more likely that he has AK, than AA or KK if you think that is in his range.

[gobboboy]

Jesus, how can you people even think this is anything other than a push? I don't like getting all my money in preflop at all, but this DEFINITELY warrants it. I think Villain is on a COMPLETE resteal about 30% of the time and he has a worse hand a significant amount of time.

Good laydowns do not good poker make. This isn't even close.