BORGATA Main Event Hand

[locutus2002]

I'd push, although its probably EV-.

In the worst case scenario, which I believe is the most likely scenario, villain has QQ++,AK. You are calling 29K to win 39K (because all the chips are going in no matter what you do) and need to be 42% in the hand. Due to the overlay the pot is right to call. I doubt that villain is out of line, because his raise does not let him escape from the hand, and he's willing to give you odds to take a flop, which suggests the higher and less likely end of his range (AA-KK). Villain does not have AQ, so the addition of pairs (jj--) does not alter the numbers.

Should hero take a fair bet for 1/2 his stack?

Hero is along way from the money so not an issue.

Hero's image will be hurt if he folds, especially the legitimacy of his MP/LP opens. It depends how important this is to your game. Hero will still have a workable stack at 56K (~average) and will come back fresh in the morning with 45XBB. The laydown of AKs might have a psychological impact on hero over the 24 hour period.

Hero's image will be helped if he wins. Nothing like showing down AKs a couple times. 100K is going to be pretty big stack well into the 2nd day. Hero might have additional EV if he plays a big stack well. Hero will be feeling pretty good at the end of the day and have no regrets.

If hero calls and loses, then hero will feel bad about his call, but his chances of winning the tournament are so small that it's less important how he feels. He still has some game left in his stack.

[hockey coach]

Wood - thanks for the thoughtful reply - appreciate it.

Still not convinced a push is right, but some of that may well be differences in tournament strategy - I tend to play more conservatively so having a viable stack is more important to my success than having a big stack (in my MT wins and top finishes I always hovered around average until late in the FT). I need to learn to play the bully better when I do get a good run and get out ahead early/mid tourney.

Regards,
HC

[davidross]

I honestly don't see anything wrong is saying a la Gus Hansen "I guess my 9 high is no good" and mucking. I don't think anyone has to know what a big laydown you made. Tables might be redrawn in the morning so even if they did it might not matter.

I push if I think I need to double up to compete at this level and take my even money chances, and if I think I can play with these guys I fold. I hate getting aggressive with AK when I don't have to and I haven't made a hand yet.

[Art Vandelay]

HC, FGators, and others advocating the call/fold unfavorable flop line:

Read pp. 234-238 of HOH2 for an explanation as to why calling is the worst option at this point in the hand.

As for the hand itself, this one is real borderline IMO. I personally would push and take a shot to accumulate lots of chips. My reasoning is that I view myself as average at best skill wise in a big buy in event so I need to gamble to have the best shot. However, I can certainly understand a fold.

I do not understand a call.

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]

As for the hand itself, this one is real borderline IMO. I personally would push and take a shot to accumulate lots of chips. My reasoning is that I view myself as average at best skill wise in a big buy in event so I need to gamble to have the best shot. However, I can certainly understand a fold.

I do not understand a call.


[/ QUOTE ]

Well put.

I'm certainly not going to outplay world class players, so I might as well get as many chips as possible (read:take thin edges, although I think this is not so thin if you have any FE) to make it tough for them to play with me.

Regards,
Woodguy

[FoxwoodsFiend]

[ QUOTE ]
I tend to play more conservatively so having a viable stack is more important to my success than having a big stack (in my MT wins and top finishes I always hovered around average until late in the FT)

[/ QUOTE ]

I say this admitting I know nothing about you HC. But whenever I hear people say these kinds of things I tend to assume that they are not winning MTT players who just lucked out in a few late tourney situations by improbably picking up premium hands before the blinds and antes eat them up.