50NL - Lame spot vs spewy reg

Hail Eris · #1 11-09-2007, 04:56 PM

Villain is 20/13/3 and seems out to get me. I'm not entirely sure how he views me. I am 22/18/3.5, but in previous sessions with him I've been pretty card dead and probably seemed like a nit, but I am running at like 25/20/4 at this table. He 3bets me light and plays back frequently, and in one prior session he 4bet me CO vs BTN with AQo and called a shove. Also, at this table we've recently played the following hand,

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button ($75.20)
SB ($46.35)
BB ($41.30)
Hero ($63.30)
MP ($47.75)
CO ($109.45)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Hero raises to $2, MP calls $2, 1 fold, Button calls $2, 2 folds.

Flop: ($6.75) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP checks, Button bets $1.5, Hero calls $1.50, MP raises to $6.5, Button folds, Hero calls $5.

Turn: ($21.25) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $16.5, Hero raises to $54.8, MP calls $22.75 (All-In).

River: ($99.75) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $99.75

Results in white below: 
Hero has Js Ah (one pair, jacks).
MP has As Ts (high card, ace).
Outcome: Hero wins $115.30. 

Since then, I've run bad and been coolered by fish and have lost most of my stack, while he has built his up, so maybe I seem tilted, and he's getting more brazen, but who knows.

This is the hand. Turn is clearly a std turbomuck. I'm more interested in flop play, or play on safer turn cards. Obviously I want to just fold the flop, but that seems pretty weak with our history. I assume he 3bets 99+ here, btw, so I doubt he ever has me beat with one pair. Am I overthinking this? Just fold flop?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($39.55)
UTG ($58.75)
MP ($89.65)
Hero ($51.05)
Button ($115.80)
SB ($49.95)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises to $2, Button calls $2, 2 folds.

Flop: ($4.75) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $3.5, Button raises to $9.5, Hero calls $6.

Turn: ($23.75) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $13.5, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $23.75

ryang · #2 11-09-2007, 05:21 PM

lead turn and instafold to raise, c/f'ing is fine too

doppelganger · #3 11-09-2007, 05:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
lead turn and instafold to raise, c/f'ing is fine too

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, given all the history I like the lead/fold line better for the turn too. It turns the Ts into a scare card in your favor instead of his. Of course, given that we know he was betting the turn, you'll probably get raised and have to fold, but we wouldn't necessarily know that during the hand.

members_only · #4 11-09-2007, 08:31 PM

I guess on a safe turn card leading would be best. After the first hand, he might be wary of a crai and check behind with a draw. You are probably going to have to get it all in if he shoves over your bet though.

Personally I would wimp out and fold the flop. Yea history etc but it's just not going to be that profitable calling here unless you think he's really out of line. As well as the obvious scare cards, a lot of overcards can give him a better hand too.