JJ overpair when board pairs up...

[neurotiq]

I'm in utg+1. Villain is 37/15/1.05.

I raise. Villain (who is on button) cold calls. BB joins us for the ride.

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

BB checks. I bet. Button calls. BB folds.

Turn: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I bet. Button raises. I fold.

I figure that since his AF is fairly neutral, he's probably not just raising the scare card lightly. He either hit a set on the flop or else just hit trips on the turn. If he were more LAGgy, I probably wouldn't give him credit for raising the scare card, but since he seems more passive, I'm folding.

Good idea or bad?

[tyler_cracker]

bad fold. no biscuit.

[BigBadBabar]

i don't fold here. this could be 7x, some middle pocket pair, or a semibluff enough of the time for calling down to be correct.

[neurotiq]

hmm, just out of curiosity, what if an A or K came down on the turn instead of a second 9? same situation i bet and get raised. am i now folding? or do i also want to call down in this situation?

[BigBadBabar]

it certainly changes things

your opponents are usually less likely to bluff there imo because your raise pf and your bet on the flop and turn signify that you usually have a good (high-card) hand which might still be better than, or be improved by, that a/k

some people like to bluff aces though as a scare card

[Buzz-cp]

I put you on AK. My TT looks good on this board. I raise you.

[kerowo]

You don't have near the read to make this fold.

[CrMenace]

I think it's a minority of times you should be folding overpairs to turn aggression, especially short-handed. This, of course, depends on a number of factors:
<ul type="square">[*] the villain -- a rockier villain you should of course give more credence to. This is probably the most important factor, IMO.[*] the board -- Draw-completing cards are more freightening than blanks. As an extreme example, say you hold K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and the board is 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. The turn comes T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I would give more credence to a turn raise. Also, double-paired boards are worth being more concerned about as villains in the pot now may have a full house.[*] number of opponents -- I would be more cautious of someone who raises a large number of people.[*] the action -- specifically you should respect a check raise more than just a raise. [/list]
I wrote this out as much for my own benefit as anyone else's, so feedback is much appreciated.

[tyler_cracker]

crmenace,

you somehow forgot to mention pot size.

[Xylocain]

I think the passive/agressive variation is more important than tight/loose

I also think the position of the donk/ c/r is important in multiway pots.