10/20 Party Button. Wrong on Most Streets?

[Cobretti]

10/20 Party. On the Button

Villain limps in the CO. He limps here 50% of the time. If I raise, each blind has about a 50% chance of folding and neither blind is going to 3-bet me over 10% of the time. So, I have a 25% chance of getting heads up with a weak player and only a small chance of a reraise.

I have A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I raise. Is this too weak here?

Blinds fold and I get heads up.

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Villain leads. He has 1.32 aggressiveness and goes to showndown 42% over 1200 hands.

I raise. He calls. I am a bit confused here. I have no idea what he leads. I don't think he leads a K or Q and he is most likely on a draw. However, I am sucking wind with A,3 and I have few outs on a semi-dangerous board with a player that is not so aggressive but at 1.3 is aggressive enough.

Turn is 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

He checks. I think I must continue and bet. He calls.

River is 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

All draws have missed. I bet he folds. I have a bit of showdown value but not much. I want any better As or any small pair to laydown here. However, I am not so sure at 42% he lays either of these down, especially since I have an aggressiveness of 2.1 (although I don't know if he pays attention and given his play I doubt it).

[Saikkonen]

I think you can normally fold the flop. If you play I would raise the flop and bet for a freeshowdown on the turn, but it is a high risk play and we may already be behind and villain will have a ton of outs if he is on a flushdraw so to raise him doesn't make him do anything incorrect. Rather we do something incorrect. What about calling and raise any nonclubturn? Seems like a better option but seems a bit weaktight. So I actually think you should fold the flop.

[Oink]

I think you misplayed all 4 streets.

Preflop is a fold unless blinds are really tight. I need a 22/18 guy in the BB and those are hard to come by in the 10 game on party.

Flop is terrible without a read IMO. Unless you have specifically seen him donk/fold flops I hate it.

If you know he donks a little bit of everything I dont mind continuing and seeing a SD on 2 bricks.

If you dont have an idea what he is donking its a fold.

Turn is not a misplay as you played it preflop and flop. So make that 3 misplayed streets.

I would check river. This guy is not folding a better hand and prolly not calling a worse hand. If you regularly bet A high thinking these guys fold better A high or a pair you are pissing away money.

[Cobretti]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you misplayed all 4 streets.

Preflop is a fold unless blinds are really tight. I need a 22/18 guy in the BB and those are hard to come by in the 10 game on party.

Flop is terrible without a read IMO. Unless you have specifically seen him donk/fold flops I hate it.

If you know he donks a little bit of everything I dont mind continuing and seeing a SD on 2 bricks.

If you dont have an idea what he is donking its a fold.

Turn is not a misplay as you played it preflop and flop. So make that 3 misplayed streets.

I would check river. This guy is not folding a better hand and prolly not calling a worse hand. If you regularly bet A high thinking these guys fold better A high or a pair you are pissing away money.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah. That was pretty much my read - hence the title of the post [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] But, there are some things that confuse me.

1) A3o is a button open raise in Stox. Now, the blinds are fairly typical (with the sb being a bit too loose). So, if I am going to open raise here why to I not want to raise against a very weak limper and try and get dead money in the pot and then heads up with this guy?

2) I think the flop is a fold. However, something smelled fishy. Also, since I c-bet about 100% of the time and given my aggressiveness, why does this player lead at me? He is usually testing a weak pair or has a draw. At 42% he is certainly not 100% show down bound.

3) Turn. I think this is automatic. His flop play could be all kinds of things and there is definitely fold equity. Additionally, I want to charge draws. Given his aggressiveness, I am not too fearful of a c/r, especially given my play so far. A player like this doesn't c/r a draw after being raised preflop and on the flop.

River - I usually check behind 100% and I think this is a pretty easy standard check given the showdown value of the A. But, I am not entirely sure that he doesnt fold a better A or fold a weak pair given that I have been firing the entire way.

[Oink]

I think you need two uncreative TAGs in the blinds to play preflop

I dont think its horrible at all.

But say you have a 40/15 guy in the SB and a good 28/20 guy in the BB

- The SB is calling a lot and 3-betting maybe 5-8%

- If SB calls the good LAGTAG is calling pretty much anything playable.

- If SB folds the good LAGTAG knows you are isolating the weak spot and playing a lot of hands. Prolly 3-betting as much as 15%


So all in all you are not getting the fish isolated enogh and you end up in a multiway pot with a hand that suffers greatly from RIO.

When someone 3-bets you it REALLY sucks


I think PF is fine only if you have two 22/18 guys behind you. And as said. I think there is one regular with those stats in the party 10 game.