Playing Ax suited for flush value ???

[Cody1982]

I know that small pairs and even pairs as large as JJ can be played for set value. My Question is can Ax suited be played for flush value? Would this be at all optimal?

Is it possible to make money in the long run limping with Ax suited or even calling with a small raise with the intention of folding if I don’t flop a draw or two pair? I would like to exclude AK-A10. Any insight would be much appreciated

[Kid Courtroom]

In my humble estimation...it depends. Factors to consider as to your long term EV with such a move would include your position, how many limpers have come in front of you, what you expect your implied odds to be should you hit, likelihood or possibility of a raise behind you based on prior play (and, related, the aggressiveness or passivity of players yet to act). You'll also have to decide how much you'd be willing to call should you flop two of the suit and get bet into. Concerning implied odds, you'd have to try and anticipate whether anyone else would stick around and put more money in if the 3 flush comes on the flop or turn. Fear of the flush on part of your opponents may keep you from achieving the implied odds necessary to make this a profitable play. I personally like the play on occassion depending on position and what I can expect players behind to do. I consider it a decent way to mix up my play. However, I do consider it a deviation of normal strategy and would expect the strict answer to your question to be "no, it's not a great EV play." That said, I look forward to seeing someone more mathematically inclined expound on that issue and whether there is a specific way to calculate this down to a range.

[coolhandluke]

I'd say no, and its a question of implied odds. with small pairs hitting sets, you can have a very non threatening board, and people with top pair, or over pairs willing to get all there money in drawing very thin. If you can see the flop cheaply, you can ditch your hand if you don't hit your set.

However, with a flush draw, you will likely have to call one or even two more bets drawing to your flush after the flop, and, if you get your flush, the board will scare better players away from the top pair/overpair hands you were preying on earlier.

[punter11235]

[ QUOTE ]
I know that small pairs and even pairs as large as JJ can be played for set value.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's almost never true. Playing for set value is almost never good. I plugged following settings to the simulation :
-player A has typical UTG range of <22+, AJ+. A9+, KQ. KJs+, QJs>
-player B has 6s6h
-Stacks are 1000$ and blinds are 5$/10$
-player A makes a raise to 40$ and player B calls
-player A makes continuation bet of 3/4 of the pot
-player B folds if he doesnt flop a set and go all-in if he does
-player A calls with top pair or better and folds otherwise

All that cost 5.32$ on average for player B. He would need stacks of 1300$ to break even with that strategy.
For Axs its even worse as you lose 30.8$ on average with 1000$ stacks. With 2000$ stacks you would lose 26$. You would need stacks of 8000$ to break even and that assuming your opponent still goes broke with top pair or better.
Not realistic assumption.
All in all playing for set or 2pair/flush value is not a way to make money.

[Cody1982]

Punter so are you saying that it's not optimal to play for set value ? What is another option for small pairs in early-mid position and late postion then?

[punter11235]

[ QUOTE ]
What is another option for small pairs in early-mid position and late postion then?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you have hopes for more callers call is good option because implied odds increase then.
If raiser is loose you can 3bet.
Otherwise especially if there are aggressive squuezers behind its the best to just fold.

[holdem2000]

I believe in Sklansky's limit literature he recommends playing Axs when you expect the flop to be 5-handed or more, same as pocket pairs.

IMO, the way you ask the question is flawed. When you play 88 hoping for a set, saying you're playing for "set value" is slightly misleading because the hand still has some value when you don't hit a set... you don't play a hand for "set value" or "flush value", you play a hand because it has positive EV.

There are plenty of situations where it's positive EV to play Axs but not to play Axo, but usually in these situations the change in EV from being suited is pretty slight; Axo being slightly -EV while Axs is slightly +EV.

[Yepitis]

Axs folds to a raise but should be limped in limit. NL I don't know.

Small pairs are also limped and folded to a raise unless there are already callers in front of you. Sets make money because people don't see them so you get lots of action to make up for the seven times you miss.

[dat333]

With any suited started hands in holdem you have roughly a 6.4% chance of making a flush by the river. Unless you have massive implied odds, i.e in level one of blinds in a rebuy for a limp, it is not worth playing. So basically it is not worth playing. On the other hand in Omaha if you have a double suited ace, obviously a more beneficial starting hand anyway, then you would have a 12.8% chance of making a flush by the river. Playing that hand is a different thing altogether anyways.

But on the holdem question. You will hit a flush draw 10.9% of the time on the flop and even then you will only have a 36% chance of hitting your flush. So not really worth it unless in ridiculously favourable implied odds situations maybe extremely deepstacked small blinds

[Mark1808]

[ QUOTE ]
I know that small pairs and even pairs as large as JJ can be played for set value. My Question is can Ax suited be played for flush value? Would this be at all optimal?

Is it possible to make money in the long run limping with Ax suited or even calling with a small raise with the intention of folding if I don’t flop a draw or two pair? I would like to exclude AK-A10. Any insight would be much appreciated

[/ QUOTE ]

My feeling is it should be a bluff with outs hand. Raising in position and C betting against 1 or 2 players will ususally take down the pot anyway. In the rare cases you flop a draw you can play the hand very aggressively and either have fold equity or play a monster pot with lots of outs. I agree that with most pairs and Axs you rarely get paid off for the risk you take, usually only when you are the aggressor with those type of hands can you make big pot when you hit.