Mid pair in BB $12/180 turbo FT

[bata2]

Stars $12/180 Final Table. 5 left. Payouts: 594, 396, 235, 158, 128$.

About ten hands into the FT. Villain has a negative ROI. Previously he check called A high flop from BB, against a button raiser, and shoved the river A. He stole the blinds twice.


Big Blind is t4000 (5 handed)

SB (t36086)
Hero (t56628)
UTG (t78248)
MP (t73434)
Button (t25604)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to t12000</font>,(Pot is 20000) <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero checks?

[ssnyc]

all you can eat!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

nice work geting to FT

[bata2]

I thought so too...

Now, if you have a read that he will rarely fold (15%) ICM shows that you need to have ~58% equity against his range for a push to be break even.
Given those circumstances, we still push, or?

[StepBangin]

I dont think he is folding here if you shove.

I dont wanna be getting into flips here unless I am the one open shoving, not re-raising someone all in.

I probably lay this down and just open shove later on while in position.

[Wish]

I think you probably do have 58% against a fairly wide range. You note that in &lt; 10 hands he's stolen the blinds twice already and played a hand, so he's been reasonably active. You also look like you're just barely deep enough for some post-flop play. Perhaps this is the right spot for a stop-and-go.

[StepBangin]

He most certainly does not have 58% equity over his opponents range here.

For him to have about 58% equity his opponents range is:

{22+,A2s+,K2s+,A2o+,K2o+ }

Which I dont think is realistic here.

Taking into consideration the blinds, the chip stacks, where the button is, the likely hood of him folding and the likely hood of it being a flip when he calls, I dont think I can ever shove here.

[omg im l337]

[ QUOTE ]
He stole the blinds twice.

[/ QUOTE ]

You answered it right there. He is most likely stealing, and winning this pot could add a lot to your stack. If he's pretty passive I stop n go, loose aggro I shove without thinking about it.

[erc007]

This is an easy 3-bet. I'd make it 48K, or shove if u think he'll be more likely to put u on a resteal.

[bata2]

If i push, he needs to pay 44k to win a pot of 116k, pot odds give him .37% equity for a call to be breakeven.
So, hardly will he fold.
I, on the other hand need .58% equity for a showdown to be EV(neutral), as a result of chipEV diverging substantialy from $EV cause of the steep payout change.

I hate passing up edges, but the more i compute the less i seem to have it here.

[bata2]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont think he is folding here if you shove.

[/ QUOTE ]
Usually true

[ QUOTE ]

I dont wanna be getting into flips here unless I am the one open shoving, not re-raising someone all in.


[/ QUOTE ]
What non premium hand if any do you shove here?

[ QUOTE ]

I probably lay this down and just open shove later on while in position.

[/ QUOTE ]

We have 13BBs here. Do you lay it down with 7BB? How about 18BB ?