Strange hand vs CTS

[Ansky]

hate turnbet vs someone as good as cole is.

and he is really really good.

[irockhoess]

i hate turn bet as well. You are almost never going to get called by a good player. Even if you do the river is just going to be bigger and make for a more annoying decision.

[fslexcduck]

i think most of the time he has a hand like TJcc or a straight here, likely one that includes a 7... your hand is very possibly a set given the utg open and calling of a reraise. that board crushed that range and cole should know this... so while it's possible and makes a lot of sense that he would have a draw here, it would have to be a pretty big draw. and if he does have a made hand, pushing is pretty much the only size bet that makes sense on the turn given your range. i think it's close but i can definitely find a fold here.

[imabigdeal]

magicninja srsly do you just suck at ignoring people? why even bother wasting your time with a rant like that... obv OP can listen to the people he wants and ignore the people he wants. who cares if some random wants to post? anyhow, i agree w most that i hate the turn bet. i think the real key in this hand is what CTS is possibly checking behind on the flop with. it could be a "i have the nuts" check, so he doesn't really care about a free card. or he could easily check behind with 77... or check a big pair cuz of the scary board (would he do this?)... then he doesn't give you credit for a 7 cuz you lead out on the turn. haha i didn't really narrow it down though huh. this is so sick. i end up folding reluctantly. (altho i would be tempted to call just to see wtf he played like that [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img])

[Nick Rivers]

There is no answer to this situation, because both calling and folding are losing propositions. This is the reality of position and game theory conspiring against you. Given a plausible range of hands for the villain, calling sucks and folding sucks. The lesson, as has already been indicated earlier in the thread, is that you should have checked the turn. Then you're left with a far, far easier decision when he either bets something reasonable (not all-in) or checks behind again.

This is a great spot to bet into a total fish who is either a calling station or a bluffing station. In that case, you're getting real value by either getting a bad call or calling a push from a player with a weaker range of hands. Against someone competent, the bet is no good.

But, seeing as how the OP didn't check, but bet instead, my answer is flip a coin and decide, call or fold. That's likely to be as good at making this decision as any amount of analysis. Your equity if you fold is $0, and I have to imagine that's roughly what your expectation will be if you call.

[xorbie]

[ QUOTE ]

There is no answer to this situation, because both calling and folding are losing propositions

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wtf does this even mean. there is very clearly an answer. the answer is call or fold. they can't both be worse than the other. and folding isn't a losing proposition, it's a 0EV proposition.

[MagicNinja]

imabigdeal;
my thoughts have no relevance to this particular thread, but its the one i had open when i wanted to vent.

whatever the case, they are pretty valid, if you are not a high stakes player and want to post in high stakes threads, it would be great to show some math / equity analysis behind your thoughts. because thats stuff a lot of high stakes players are too lazy to do.

eg it would be great if some 1/2 nl player chimed in and said 'well look, if we put CTS' range as 10% pure bluff, 30% draw like AQc and 50% as a 7, and our equity vs this range is X% and we are getting laid whatever odds, this is a call; however notice if he is only on a draw 10% of the time or whatever, its a fold; i'm not really sure how to analyse CTS' range, because i haven't played with him, thoughts?'.

you might say 'you're a hypocrite you're not posting anything', but this post is infinitely more useful than most the other peoples in this thread, i am basically saying how to solve the hand (as well as it can be solved without a stronger read on CTS' range).

[Shizzle12345]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

There is no answer to this situation, because both calling and folding are losing propositions

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wtf does this even mean. there is very clearly an answer. the answer is call or fold. they can't both be worse than the other. and folding isn't a losing proposition, it's a 0EV proposition.

[/ QUOTE ]
care to explain this a bit further? the 0ev proposition.

[AcTiOnJaCsOn]

gotta call

[stealthcow]

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I think I would learn a ton from knowing what range of hands cts does this with (and why, of course).

I can't see the benefits of cts checking behind the flop with a monster hand (other then QJ) really benefiting him more then he loses when you have an overpair. Its not like if you have AK you're suddenly going to give him a ton of action if you hit on the turn.

The only hands i can think of that he might have are low flush draws 45ss 56ss, QJs, 67s and 66.

stealthcow-

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Didn't even notice the ton of backdoor flush draws (AKcc, AQcc KQcc AJcc 45cc 56cc etc) that make sense for him to push. I think you gotta call this.