crockpot's baseball picks 4/1-4/7 (incl futures)

[Homer]

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13-8, +32.81

4/6 plays:

Tex +109 (1)
Cle -137 (1)
StL -110 (1)
Ari -104 (1)
Oak +112 (1)
KC +149 (1)
Tam +125 (5)

my system initially called for a max of 4 units because i didn't anticipate a line possibly being off by this much. apparently pinny had it at +133 for awhile; scary...

with shields vs. chacin, the d-rays are probably a neutral field favorite here. add in home-field and +125, and you're crazy to pass that up.

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Some/most of these have moved ridiculously in your favor.

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Seriously. I managed to snag Royals +154, D'Backs -105, D'Rays +118 avg odds (got a small piece at +132 on Matchbook, lol), Rangers +108. Cards and Indians have moved a ton, might be able to get some Oakland at some point.

[ImNew]

crockpot, I hope I wasn't too late in increasing my stake on your picks!

MTD
W 7
L 2
Hitting 77.78%
Balance $1,487.50

[Jordan]

will you be adding on to your royals bet now that it's +165?

[MyTurn2Raise]

not speaking for crockpot, but, if nothing underlying the original bet has changed, you better double up on a bet that started at +149 and is now +165. I did at least.

[Homer]

Ugh, Indians game went to a delay one out away from an official game. Don't bad beat me mother nature.

[Methodz]

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Ugh, Indians game went to a delay one out away from an official game. Don't bad beat me mother nature.

[/ QUOTE ]yeah it's retarded. I'm from the Cleveland area, and I have money on Cleveland so I'm pulling for them too.

And technically they were one strike away....but of course they put it on delay. If they cancel the game with 1 strike/1 out before it's an official game...omg [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

[dankhank]

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not speaking for crockpot, but, if nothing underlying the original bet has changed, you better double up on a bet that started at +149 and is now +165. I did at least.

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but something underlying did change. the (sharp) market disagreed with crockpot on kansas city, whereas it wholeheartedly agreed on all his others. that's what made his picks look so strong to me late last night - not that they won the last three days, but that the overnight market was already indicating crockpot was on the right side.

heading into the first pitch, i feel very confident about all the plays except kansas city.

[crockpot]

i actually posted as i was finalizing my plays, and KC was at +154 on 5dimes, which i took. i just don't believe in going back and editing my post.

i did put one more unit on them at +165.

though i'm mostly just following the numbers here, there's solid logic behind the bet since the tigers and royals were respectively better and worse last year than they will be this time, plus verlander in 2006:

- posted a better ERA than would be expected based on his peripherals
- posted a better W-L than would be expected based on his ERA
- had his ERA rise in the second half as the league started catching on to his stuff and getting better scouting

[Methodz]

they're clearing the field, game still on. Now Cleveland just needs to get 1 strike, even though the bases are loaded which kind of worries me but with all the snow/super cold weather I don't think they'll be able to make a comeback.

[Homer]

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they're clearing the field, game still on. Now Cleveland just needs to get 1 strike, even though the bases are loaded which kind of worries me but with all the snow/super cold weather I don't think they'll be able to make a comeback.

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Though now they will probably keep playing, even if they get out of the jam here.