Basic Prop Math Question

[Ortho]

Let's say there is following totally fair prop:

Total Field Goals in Tonight's Game:

Over 3.5 +150
Under 3.5 -150

Is there a way for me to figure out what is the average number of field goals implied by this line? The line is implying that there is a 60% chance of there being 3 or less, and a 40% chance of there being 4 or more. I understand how to take, say, the prediction that there will be 2.8 field goals or whatever and estimate a fair line from that using Poisson, but is there a way for me to figure out what average is being implied from a given line?

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's say there is following totally fair prop:

Total Field Goals in Tonight's Game:

Over 3.5 +150
Under 3.5 -150

Is there a way for me to figure out what is the average number of field goals implied by this line? The line is implying that there is a 60% chance of there being 3 or less, and a 40% chance of there being 4 or more. I understand how to take, say, the prediction that there will be 2.8 field goals or whatever and estimate a fair line from that using Poisson, but is there a way for me to figure out what average is being implied from a given line?

[/ QUOTE ]

Looks like the average is 3.21. This is from using SSB's 1-var poisson calc. I guessed different values for the mean (with the EV set at 0.0%), narrowing in towards the answer until I got exactly +150/-150 for the over/under on 3.5.

[Ortho]

Thanks very much.